The San Francisco Giants (59-35) meet the Los Angeles Dodgers (59-37) Wednesday at Dodger Stadium for the third of their four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
These teams split the first two games of the series with San Francisco winning the first 7-2 and L.A. taking the second meeting 8-6.
Season series: Dodgers lead 7-4.
RHP Logan Webb is San Francisco’s projected starter. Webb is 4-3 with a 3.54 ERA (56 IP, 22 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 across 11 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 2 K in San Francisco’s 7-2 victory at the St. Louis Cardinals Friday.
- Webb beat L.A. earlier this season (May 29) with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 7 K in the Giants’ 11-6 road win.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 2.78 FIP with a .234 batting average (BA), .316 wOBA, .406 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 27.8 K% and 86.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 54 plate appearances.
LHP Julio Urias makes his 20th start for the Dodgers. Urias is 12-3 with a 3.78 ERA (112 IP, 47 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 10-4, with 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 3 K Friday at the Colorado Rockies.
- Urias is 1-1 against L.A. this season with a 6.55 ERA (11 IP, 8 ER), 14 H, 2 BB and 15 K in two starts.
- vs. Giants on the current roster: 3.15 FIP with a .300 BA, .354 expected wOBA, .417 xSLG, 26.7 K% and 86.8 mph EV in 90 plate appearances.
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Giants at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Giants +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Dodgers -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-135) | Dodgers -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Dodgers 4, Giants 3
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the DODGERS (-175) for 1 unit because both L.A.’s bullpen and lineup edge out San Francisco’s while this starting pitching matchup is essentially a wash.
For instance, this month, the Dodgers’ batters have the highest WAR, second-highest in both wRC+ and hard-contact rate and third-highest wOBA.
Furthermore, L.A’s bullpen is good to very good whereas San Francisco’s is average to below average. The Dodgers relievers rank ninth in WAR (the Giants 19th), sixth in xFIP (the Giants 15th) and fifth in home runs allowed per nine-inning rate (the Giants 14th).
However, these margins are thinner than I’d like so I’m only putting 1 unit on L.A.’s money line. As in, if your usual sports betting wager is $100 then bet that on DODGERS (-175) to earn a profit of $57.14.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because San Francisco has the best cover rate as a road underdog this season (24-4 ATS) with the highest run line margin (plus-3.3 runs) while L.A. is 20-21 ATS in games against divisional foes.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-110) for a quarter unit because both lineups have been cranking this month, the Dodgers are 13-4 O/U when Urias gets the start, and the Under has cashed in five of the past seven Giants-Dodgers meetings.
However, we do have split action in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money on the Under and the “public” backing the Over. So I’m a little hesitant about my Over since I’m rolling with the “average Joe”.
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