The San Francisco Giants (20-14) head to Coors Field Monday to start a 3-game set with National League West co-tenant Colorado Rockies (17-17). First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco is 6-4 overall in the last 10 games but lost back-to-back road games at the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday and Sunday.
Colorado is 3-7 in the last 10 and has lost 6 of the last 7 games including the rubber match of a 3-game set with the Kansas City Royals 8-7 Sunday.
The Giants swept the Rockies 3-0 at home last week, and San Francisco outscored Colorado 24-8 in the 3-game series.
Giants at Rockies projected starters
LHP Alex Wood vs. LHP Antonio Senzatela
Wood is 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 30 IP over 6 starts.
- Last start: Win, 9-2, vs. the Rockies Tuesday with 5 1/3 IP, 7 H, 0 ER (1 R), 2 BB and 4 K.
- vs. Rockies on the current roster: 2.75 FIP with a .283/.319/.399 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 20.3 K% and 85.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 133 plate appearances (PA).
Senzatela is 2-2 with a 4.88 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 2.6 K/9 in 27 2/3 IP over 6 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 9-2, at the Giants Tuesday with 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 1 K.
- vs. Giants on the current roster: 4.51 FIP with a .317/.396/.536 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 13.8 K% and 90.0 mph EV in 109 PA.
Giants at Rockies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Giants -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Rockies +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants -1.5 (+100) | Rockies +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 11.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Giants at Rockies picks and predictions
Prediction
Giants 9, Rockies 5
Money line
LEAN to the GIANTS (-150) only because this ML is a little pricey, and I’m confident enough in San Francisco to make an argument for the RL instead.
But, the Giants beat the Rockies (+122) last week with the same starting pitching matchup, and home-field advantage doesn’t make up the difference. In fact, San Francisco was 7-2 overall in Colorado last season and doubled up the Rockies in runs scored, 72-36.
The Giants’ bats are much hotter lately and there’s an ocean-sized gulf between the two bullpens. Over the past two weeks, San Francisco’s lineup ranks in the top-10 of WAR, wOBA, and wRC+ while Colorado’s lineup is 18th or worse in all of those metrics, according to FanGraphs.
Senzatela grades in the 6th percentile or worse in xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line and the 1st percentile in both K% and whiff rate, per Statcast. Also, Colorado’s bullpen has the second-worst xFIP, dead-last in both WHIP and ERA.
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN to the GIANTS -1.5 (+100) because they crushed the Rockies +1.5 (-120) in Colorado last season, and all of 7 of their wins at Coors Field in 2021 were by at least 2 runs.
Also, San Francisco is an MLB-best 8-2 RL as road favorites with a plus-1.1 RL margin and Colorado is 9-12 RL as underdogs.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the OVER 11.5 (-122) because Colorado is 6-0 O/U in Senzatela’s 6 starts, the Over cashed in the first 3 Giants-Rockies meetings this season and the Over is being steamed up by sharp line movement.
However, betting an Over at Coors Field is a little too predictable, and the hitter-friendly conditions in Colorado are accounted for in the line.
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