The Colorado Rockies (63-76) host the San Francisco Giants (89-50) Wednesday for the finale of their three-game series at Coors Field with the first pitch scheduled for 3:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco mopped Colorado in the first two games of the series by a combined score of 22-8
Season series: Giants lead 11-4.
RHP Anthony DeSclafani takes the mound for the Giants. He is 11-6 with a 3.24 ERA (141 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 across 26 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in San Francisco’s 3-2 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 5 K.
- DeSclafani is 3-0 against Colorado this season with a 0.90 ERA (20 IP, 2 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 5.3 K/BB through three starts.
- vs. Rockies on the current roster (102 PA): 2.12 FIP with a .211 batting average (BA), .235 wOBA, .316 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.4 K% and 86.6 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Jon Gray is Colorado’s projected starter. He is 7-10 with a 4.13 ERA (126 1/3 IP, 58 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 across 24 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 2 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 2 K in Colorado’s 5-2 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Aug. 28.
- Gray is 1-1 against San Francisco this year with a 5 ER on 11 H, 3 BB and 13 K across two starts.
- vs. Giants on the current roster (137 PA): 3.54 FIP with a .298 BA, .348 wOBA, .390 xSLG, 24.8 K% and 91.0 mph EV.
Giants at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Giants -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Rockies +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+102) | Rockies +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 11.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Prediction
Rockies 7, Giants 4
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the ROCKIES (+120) for a tiny wager because I like the value of their run line and there’s significant “reverse line movement” heading in Colorado’s direction.
The Giants opened as -155 money line favorites and 95% of the cash wagered thus far has been on San Francisco but it has been steamed down to the listed price, according to Pregame.com.
The reasons for the pro-Giants money are obvious: San Francisco has a major edge in the starting pitching duel and the Giants are in a division race with the Dodgers while the Rockies are already eliminated from playoff contention.
However, DeSclafani’s impressive stats against the Rockies all came at home. He isn’t as sharp on the road plus Gray and the Rockies perform a lot better at Coors Field.
DeSclafani’s lower road ERA is also misleading as his hard-contact rate is 8% higher on the road and he has a 3.00 FIP at home compared to a 4.34 road rate. Also, Gray’s home ERA is a full run lower than his road ERA and the Rockies are 45-26 at home.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
DEFINITELY BET the ROCKIES +1.5 (-125) heavier than or instead of the money line since it’s the wiser wager and there has been “sharp” line movement toward Colorado. For example, the Rockies’ run line opened at -109 before it was steamed up to the current price.
This is a “pros vs. Joes” scenario in the betting market with nearly two-thirds of the cash wagered on Colorado while three-quarters of the bets placed have been on San Francisco.
Oddsmakers have reacted to the presumed “sharp” money and, in sports betting, it’s better to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 11.5 (-122) because both sides of the market prefer the Under. That said, we’d be getting the worst of the number as the total has been steamed down from the 12-run opener.
Also, the Colorado sides are my favorite bets in this contest, so let’s stick with those.
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]