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The San Diego State Aztecs (2-3, 0-1 MWC) and the Air Force Falcons (4-0, 2-0) meet Saturday at Falcon Stadium in USAF Academy, Colo. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the San Diego State vs. Air Force odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Aztecs are looking to turn things around after dropping 3 consecutive games, including a 34-31 setback at home to Boise State in the conference opener last Friday. The good news is that San Diego State covered as a 4.5-point underdog, and it is 2-0 ATS in the past 2 outings. The 31 points marked the most for San Diego State against an FBS opponent this season, too.
The Falcons started off rather sluggish at San Jose State last Friday, and Air Force trailed 20-17 at the half. However, the Falcons outscored the Spartans 28-0 in the final 30 minutes to comfortably cover, while equaling the total (45) on its own. Air Force has scored 39 or more points in 3 of 4 games, cashing the Over in the previous 2 while also covering in those outings.
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San Diego State at Air Force odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:32 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): San Diego State +315 (bet $100 to win $315) | Air Force -410 (bet $410 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): San Diego State +10.5 (-115) | Air Force -10.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 42.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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San Diego State at Air Force picks and predictions
Prediction
Air Force 26, San Diego State 13
Moneyline
Air Force (-410) will cost you over 4 times your potential return, and that’s quite a bit of risk, and not enough reward. There is also the risk of the Falcons falling behind, too, and it isn’t exactly built for playing catch-up, with a primarily ground-based attack. That makes the Falcons even more risky that some others at a high price like this.
PASS.
Against the spread
AIR FORCE -10.5 (-105) is the lean, but go very lightly.
By the way, isn’t it ironic that a team named Air Force primarily keeps the ball on the ground, rarely going to the air? It has just 55.3 passing yards per game, while leading the nation with 340.5 rushing yards per contest.
Defensively, Air Force has been stout, too, allowing very little on the ground or in the air, and that’s not what San Diego State +10.5 (-115) needs as it tries to snap a 3-game skid.
Over/Under
UNDER 42.5 (-110) is a rather low number for this day and age of college football, but Saturday’s game will be more old school, and won’t resemble a video game.
Air Force has a bruising rushing attack, and running the ball keeps the clock moving. The fact that the clock isn’t stopped for 1st downs aids Under bettors even more, especially in games featuring the Falcons.
The Aztecs also have a methodical, lumbering offensive attack, and not a quick strike offense. As such, the Under is the best play in this Mountain West showdown.
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