The No. 21 San Diego State Aztecs (6-0, 2-0 MWC) and Air Force Falcons (6-1, 3-1) meet for a Saturday 7 p.m. ET game at Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs, Colorado. Below, we look at the San Diego State vs. Air Force odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
San Diego State squeaked by San Jose State, 19-13 in overtime, last Saturday to remain unbeaten this fall. The Aztecs were outgained, 345 yards to 240, and for an undefeated team, SDSU has had its problems moving the chains all season. San Diego State heads into Saturday’s Mountain West crossover tilt ranked 103rd in total offense (348.5 yards per game).
The Falcons have their offense cranked up of late and have won four consecutive games. The nation’s leading rushing attack (336.4 yards per game) has produced 4.9-or-more yards per attempt in five of seven games this season. Air Force has also benefited from a plus-7 in turnover margin.
San Diego State at Air Force odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: San Diego State +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Air Force -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): San Diego State +2.5 (+105) | Air Force -2.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 38.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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San Diego State at Air Force odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Air Force 24, San Diego State 20
Money line
San Diego State is out too far over its skis in holding foes to a 26.7% conversion rate on third downs. The Aztecs are up against a Falcons team that can stay on schedule and one that is 12-2 straight-up over its last 14 games at home.
TAKE AIR FORCE (-160).
Against the spread
This is a strength-on-strength, run-versus-run game. These teams both rank as top-25 in rushing offense and rushing defense. But Air Force has an edge with what they do at the line of scrimmage and that includes run-stuff avoidance.
Consider a Falcons (-2.5) play only at -120 or better. Otherwise, PASS — the money line play becomes worth it with a low total looming.
Over/Under
The Over is 6-2 in the last eight San Diego State-Air Force meetings in Fort Collins. And that’s the zag lean here, with both offenses perhaps having more finishing success and getting this total into the mid-40s.
BACK THE OVER 38.5 (-107).
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