The San Diego Padres (53-40) and Washington Nationals (42-47) start a three-game set Friday at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 2-2.
RHP Chris Paddack is San Diego’s projected starter. Paddack is 4-6 with a 5.38 ERA (77 IP, 46 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 over 16 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Blown save with 2 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 4 K in San Diego’s 3-1 loss to the Colorado Rockies Sunday.
- Paddack took a loss vs. the Nationals July 7 with 2 IP, 8 ER, 9 H, 1 BB and 2 K in Washington’s 15-5 road victory.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster: 24 at-bats with a .417/.481/.708 slash line, 7/2 K/BB, 2 HR and 9 RBIs.
RHP Erick Fedde is on the hill for the Nationals. Fedde is 4-6 with a 4.59 ERA (64 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 across 13 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-1, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 7 K Sunday at the San Francisco Giants.
- Fedde lost July 6 at the Padres with a stat line of 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 2 K in Washington’s 7-4 loss.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 46 at-bats with a .304/.319/.457 slash line, 8/1 K/BB, 2 HR and 7 RBIs.
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Padres at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:24 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Nationals +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+115) | Nationals +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Nationals 4, Padres 3
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the NATIONALS (+115) for a quarter unit since I’m down on Paddack as a starter because he has career highs in both ERA and WHIP while nearly 90% of the pitches in his three-pitch arsenal are either fastball or changeup.
Don’t get me wrong, Fedde’s stuff isn’t very impressive either, but the Nationals are 7-6 when Fedde starts and they have a winning record at home whereas the Padres are 20-21 on the road this season.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Nationals +1.5 (-140) is too expensive given Washington’s 20-26 ATS record at home and San Diego’s 23-18 ATS record on the road this season.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (+100) for a half unit because Paddack got roughed up vs. the Nationals earlier this season and one of the three Overs that cashed in Fedde’s 13 starts this season was his outing against San Diego.
Otherwise, Washington is 3-9-1 O/U when Fedde starts this year and the Nationals have the highest home Under percentage in the majors at 13-33 O/U.
That being said, the Over has cashed in four straight Padres-Nationals meetings and both starters are “bottom of the rotation” guys at best.
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