The New York Mets (58-37) host the San Diego Padres (54-42) for their 3-game series and season finale at Citi Field on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball, which is scheduled for a 7:08 p.m. ET start. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: San Diego leads 4-1 with a plus-16 run differential in those meetings.
San Diego won the first 2 games of this series by a combined score of 6-2 with Padres SPs Yu Darvish and Blake Snell allowing just 1 earned run over 12 innings of combined work with a 14/3 K/BB rate.
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Padres at Mets projected starters
RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco
Musgrove is 8-2 with a 2.42 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 104 IP over 16 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in San Diego’s 10-6 loss at the Colorado Rockies July 13 with 5 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 vs. the Mets: 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 12 H, 3 HR, 2 BB and 17 K.
Carrasco is 10-4 with a 4.27 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 99 IP across 18 starts.
- Last start: Won 8-0 in New York’s July 14 victory at the Chicago Cubs with 6 IP, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
- 2022 vs. the Padres: 1 start, a 11-5 win June 6 in San Diego with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 10 K.
Padres at Mets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-200) | Mets -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Padres at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Mets 3
Money line
BET 1 UNIT ON THE PADRES (+105) because they have an edge in the starting pitching matchup, San Diego is an MLB-best 15-9 overall as road underdogs and betting the Padres on the road with Musgrove on the road has been profitable.
Musgrove is better than Carrasco by K% (24.8-23.8%), BB% (6.2-5.6%), HR% (2.6-2.2%), hard-hit rate (38.4-36.7%) and exit velocity (88.2-86.5 mph).
Also, Carrasco struggles on 6 or more days of rest where he has his worst winning percentage (42.3%), ERA (5.15), WHIP (1.33), K/9 (8.4) and home runs allowed per 9 (1.63) of any rest split.
Finally, San Diego is 15-9 overall on the road in Musgrove starts since he joined the Padres last season with an average score of 4.54-3.88 and a plus-12.1% return on investment.
BET PADRES (+105).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
As much as I’d love some insurance for our San Diego ML look, the Padres +1.5 (-200) is way too expensive because they are an MLB-best 19-5 RL as road underdogs.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-112).
Most of the action is on the Under 7.5 (-108) according to Pregame.com yet the total has been lowered from an 8-run opener. This reverse line movement is suspicious and suggests the oddsmakers are laying a trap with the total and are baiting bettors into taking more pro-Under action.
It’s only a LEAN to the OVER 7.5 (-130) because the market analysis is my sole handicapping angle for the Padres-Mets total and this is a “sharp” number without a ton of value on either side.
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