The San Diego Padres (52-42) head to Citi Field Friday to start a 3-game set with the New York Mets (58-35) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: San Diego leads 2-1 with a plus-12 run differential.
San Diego won 2 of 3 games at home vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks heading into the All-Star break. However, the Padres are 4-6 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games and 10.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for 1st in the NL West.
N.Y. had a 4-game win streak snapped prior to the All-Star break in a 3-2 loss at the Chicago Cubs. But, the Mets are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games and are 2.5 games ahead of the Atlanta Braves atop the NL East.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Padres at Mets projected starters
RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Max Scherzer
Darvish is 8-4 with a 3.41 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 108 1/3 IP across 17 starts.
- Last start: Win, 5-3, at home vs. the Diamondbacks last Friday with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 9 K.
- 2022 vs. the Mets: 1 start — a 7-0 home win June 7 — with 7-scoreless IP, 2 H, 0 BB and 6 K.
Scherzer is 6-1 with a 2.22 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 through 69 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in N.Y.’s 4-3 win at the Cubs Saturday with 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 11 K.
- 2021 vs. the Padres: 2-0 with a 4.55 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 6 HR and 10.8 K/9 in 5 starts while pitching for the Washington Nationals and Dodgers.
Padres at Mets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:49 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Mets -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-145) | Mets -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +100)
Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Padres at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 3, Mets 2
Money line
LEAN PADRES (+155) for a “sprinkle” — if at all — because the Mets have the better starter and lineup. San Diego’s RL and the Under are also better looks in this game.
However, Scherzer had subpar numbers vs. the Padres last year we are getting a good number on San Diego’s ML with Darvish on the bump.
There’s also been a ton of bets on N.Y.’s ML but minimum line movement according to Pregame.com. A “line freeze” in the betting market is the oddsmakers’ way of daring bettors to take more action on the “square” side.
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 8/31/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
Run line/Against the spread
RISK A HALF-UNIT on the PADRES +1.5 (-145) instead of betting to win 1 unit. If your standard wager is $100 then bet $50 on the PADRES +1.5 (-145) to earn a $34.48 profit.
That said, San Diego is 17-5 RL as a road underdog and has a rock-solid bullpen that can be trusted to keep the Padres in the game if Darvish isn’t dealing Friday.
“FLAT-BET” a half-unit on the PADRES +1.5 (-145).
Over/Under
BET A QUARTER-UNIT on the UNDER 6.5 (+100) only because this is a “sharp” total.
But, the Padres are 6-11 O/U in Darvish’s 17 starts, Citi Field is a notoriously pitcher-friendly venue (18th in park factor) and the Mets are 0-5 O/U in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
San Diego’s RL is my favorite look in this game, followed by the UNDER 6.5 (+100).
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]