The San Diego Padres (61-47) travel north to start a 3-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers (72-33) Friday. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is set for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego had a 5-game win streak snapped Thursday with a 7-3 loss to the Colorado Rockies but the Padres are 7-3 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games.
Los Angeles is 8-2 SU over its last 10 games and has won 5 straight, including a 4-game sweep at the San Francisco Giants Monday-Thursday.
Season series: The Dodgers lead 5-2 and have outscored the Padres 35-14.
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Padres at Dodgers projected starters
LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Tony Gonsolin
Manaea is 6-5 with a 4.25 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 110 IP over 19 starts.
- Last start: Win, 3-2, Sunday at home vs. the Minnesota Twins with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 7 K.
- 2022 vs. the Dodgers: 1 start — a 10-2 loss at home April 24 — with 4 1/3 IP, 7 R (6 ER), 6 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 5 K.
Gonsolin is 12-1 with a 2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 104 2/3 IP across 19 starts.
- Last start: Win, 7-3, Sunday at the Rockies with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 6 K.
- 2022 vs. the Padres: 1 start — a 5-1 home win July 1 — with 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 8 K.
Padres at Dodgers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:49 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Dodgers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-155) | Dodgers -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Padres at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Dodgers 2
Money line
BET a HALF-UNIT on the PADRES (+130) because they are 15-10 SU as road underdogs and there’s a “line freeze” in the betting market, which suggests the Dodgers (-160) could be a trap line.
The oddsmakers are at least comfortable taking more pro-L.A. action because nearly two-thirds of the handle is on the Dodgers according to Pregame.com but the line hasn’t budged at Tipico Sportsbook.
However, L.A. ranks higher than San Diego in the 3 most important phases of the game (starting and relief pitching and hitting) and the Under is my favorite look in the Padres-Dodgers.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS with a “lean” to the Padres +1.5 (-155) because they are 19-6 RL as road underdogs and I’d love some insurance for our San Diego ML wager.
But, the Dodgers are 30-20 RL as home favorites and 6 of their 7 meetings with the Padres have been decided by at least 2 runs.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 8.5 (-105).
Both starters pitch better on 4 days of rest than any other rest split, and the Padres have gone Under the total in Manaea’s last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. On top of that, the Dodgers are 5-13-1 O/U in Gonsolin starts this year.
San Diego is also 12-19-1 O/U as an underdog, L.A. is 40-54-9 O/U as a favorite, Padres-Dodgers have gone Under the total in 5 of their last 7 meetings and Padres-Dodgers have a combined 33-52-4 O/U record in division games.
Most of the market is barreling into the Over 8.5 (-115) according to Pregame.com because there are sluggers littered throughout both lineups. Since both starters have above-average stuff and both bullpens are reliable, this feels like a good spot to fade the market backing the Over.
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