The San Diego Padres (12-11) and Los Angeles Dodgers (15-6) wrap up their four-game series on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 3-3
The Dodgers won 5-4 Saturday after losing the first two games of the series: 3-2 Thursday and 6-1 Friday.
RHP Joe Musgrove is Sunday’s projected starting pitcher for San Diego. He is 2-2 with a 1.04 ERA (26 IP, 3 ER), 0.54 WHIP, 12.8 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9 in 4 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 13 K vs. Milwaukee Brewers Monday – Padres lost 3-1
- Career vs. Dodgers: 0-3, 5.40 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 in 3 starts
The Dodgers are looking to RHP Dustin May in the finale. Through 3 starts, he is 1-1 with a 2.93 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K at Seattle Mariners Monday – Dodgers lost 4-3
- 2020 postseason vs. Padres: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (3 IP, 0 ER), 0 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
- Career vs. Padres (regular season): 1-3, 2.97 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 4 starts and 3 relief appearances
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Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:51 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Dodgers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-190) | Dodgers -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Padres 4, Dodgers 2
Money line (ML)
Based on the pitching matchup, SAN DIEGO (+105) is the way to go.
Musgrove is a stud. He might be 0-2 since tossing the Padres’ first no-hitter in franchise history April 9, but the right-hander only allowed 3 runs in those two outings.
In his first game after the no-no in which he threw 112 pitches, he was lifted for a pinch-hitter in the top of the fifth inning after tossing 81 pitches.
In his next start, Musgrove was a hard-luck loser, allowing just 2 runs in 7 innings and striking out 13 in a 3-1 loss to Milwaukee.
There’s no doubt he’s capable of shutting out the Dodgers if he’s on top of his game.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Padres +1.5 (-190) is just too chalky. However, back the alternate line of PADRES -1.5 (+180) with a QUARTER-UNIT wager.
ATS records: Padres 12-11 | Dodgers 11-10
Over/Under (O/U)
Back UNDER 7.5. (-120) to win 30% OF 1 UNIT. A $100 player should bet $36 to win $30; a $10 player should bet $3.60 to win $3.
The Under is 4-0 in Musgrove’s starts and 2-1 in May’s starts.
Plus, both clubs have been paying off for Under bettors so far this season, but the last two games of this series finished Over.
Prior to the two Overs, San Diego played six Unders in a row and Los Angeles was on a 5-game Under streak.
O/U records: Padres 8-15 | Dodgers 8-13
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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
| JOHNNY RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| 2021 MLB | 28-18-1 | 8-5-1 | +8.5275 |
| 2021 (all sports) | 131-103-2 | 57-46-1 | +22.0775 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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