The San Diego Padres (34-19) try for the sweep Sunday against the Houston Astros (27-24) in Minute Maid Park at 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego rallied from a 5-run deficit Saturday in the eighth and ninth innings before beating Houston in a second straight extra-innings game, 11-8.
Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr. blasted a 3-run shot in the top of the ninth to tie it at 6-all. Tatis also hit a tying solo home run in the top of the eighth in San Diego’s 10-3 extra-innings win Friday over Houston.
Season series: Padres 2-0.
LHP Blake Snell makes his 11th start for the Padres. Snell is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA (44 IP, 22 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 5.7 BB/9 and 13.7 K/9 this season.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-3, in 3 2/3 IP with 5 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 7 K Monday at the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Career vs. Astros: 2-2 with a 4.73 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.49 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 over six regular-season starts.
- Snell was 1-1 in his two starts against the Astros in the 2020 American League Championship Series (Games 1 and 6) with 9 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 6 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Astros on the current roster (including postseason): 107 at-bats with a .308/.393/.561 slash line, 21/15 K/BB, 7 HR and 12 RBIs.
RHP Zack Greinke is the projected starter for the Astros. Greinke is 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA (65 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 11 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 9-2, in 6 IP with 4 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 5 K Tuesday vs. Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Career vs. Padres: 13-3 with a 2.44 ERA (169 1/3 IP, 46 ER), 0.92 WHIP and 8.8 K/9 across 26 starts.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 129 at-bats with a .178/.243/.271 slash line, 40/11 K/BB, 3 HR and 11 RBIs.
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Padres at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:52 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Astros -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+150) | Astros +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Astros 6, Padres 4
Money line (ML)
BET the ASTROS (-105) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because of their edge in the starting pitching department and it avoids a Houston bullpen that has blown two games already this series and has struggled on the year.
Houston’s lineup is ranked in the top 5 vs. left-handed pitching in several advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA, BB/K rate and hard-hit rate.
Furthermore, Snell has a 7.23 FIP, .393 wOBA and 15.6% strikeout rate vs. Astros on the current roster (109 plate appearances) while Greinke has a 3.14 FIP, .230 wOBA and 27.8% strikeout rate vs. current Padres (133 plate appearances).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the ASTROS -0.5 (+155) FIRST 3 INNINGS alternate run line because the top of Houston’s order hits well against Snell, who has been behind after three innings in six of his 10 starts this season.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS since the Over has cashed in the first two games of this series with late- or extra-inning rallies because Houston’s bullpen cannot hold a lead.
Also, the Astros hitters have done alright in the batter’s box against Snell so that, and the price-point rules out the Under 4.5 (-125) First 5 Innings.
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