The San Diego Padres (32-19) kick off a three-game interleague set with the Houston Astros (27-22) on Friday at Minute Maid Park . First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego just split a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers this week but is 15-5 in the last 20 games and atop the NL West by a half-game.
Houston also split its two-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers after being swept by the Texas Rangers last weekend and is 5-5 in the past 10 games.
Season series: 0-0.
RHP Dinelson Lamet makes his fourth start for the Padres. Lamet is 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA (11 IP, 2 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 over three starts and two bullpen appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision in 3 IP with 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 5 K in San Diego’s 6-4 win vs. the Seattle Mariners last Saturday.
- Career vs. Astros: No appearances.
RHP Framber Valdez makes his season debut for the Astros. Valdez was 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA (70 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 last season.
- Career vs. Padres: No appearances.
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Padres at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:51 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Astros -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+150) | Astros +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Padres 5, Astros 2
Money line (ML)
BET the PADRES (-105) for 1 unit because San Diego has a significant edge in the pitching department and the lineup’s bats are coming alive. Lamet was terrific in 2020 and has been even better this season.
For instance, Lamet graded in the 89th percentile of expected wOBA, 84th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 94th percentile of K% last season.
Furthermore, Valdez had a good to very good 2020 but was graded in the 4th percentile in hard-hit rate and 5th percentile in exit velocity and San Diego’s lineup is starting to hit closer to expectation.
Over the past two weeks, the Padres hitters are fifth in WAR, wRC+ and wOBA and second in BB/K rate.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the PADRES -1.5 (+150) for a quarter unit for the aforementioned reasons and San Diego’s bullpen being way better than Houston’s.
The Padres relievers have the best xFIP and SIERA, second-highest left-on-base percentage and seventh-best WAR while the Astros’ bullpen is 23rd in WAR.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-120) ALTERNATE TOTAL for a quarter unit mostly because more than 95% of the money is currently on the Over in Padres-Astros, according to Pregame.com.
I get it; both starters are relatively unknown and Valdez is making his 2021 debut so there could be a “rust factor” with him.
With that said, these guys have top of the rotation stuff and it’s generally profitable in sports gambling to fade such lopsided markets.
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