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The San Diego Padres (51-50) and Cleveland Guardians (59-38) conclude their 3-game series Sunday. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 1:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
RHP Dylan Cease allowed 1 hit and struck out 10 in 7 IP as the Padres beat the Cleveland Guardians 7-0 Saturday. RF David Peralta went 2-for-3 with a HR and 2 runs scored and DH Jake Cronenworth had a HR and 3 RBIs as San Diego improved its road record to 25-22.
Cleveland also lost 7-0 on Friday and have been shut out in 3 of its last 5 games. Their lone hit Saturday was a 3rd-inning triple from CF Tyler Freeman. Despite falling for the 6th time in their last 9 games, Cleveland is 31-12 at home.
Padres at Guardians projected starters
RHP Michael King vs. RHP Ben Lively
King (7-6, 3.41 ERA) makes his 20th start and 21st appearance. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 111 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 2-0 loss against the Seattle Mariners on July 10
- 2024 road splits: 6-2, 2.74 ERA (62 1/3 IP, 24 R (19 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 11 games
- Has never started against the Guardians
Lively (8-5, 3.58 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 88 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 2-0 defeat at Tampa Bay Rays on July 10
- 2024 home splits: 5-0, 2.55 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 6 starts
- Has never started against the Padres
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Padres at Guardians odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Guardians -104 (bet $104 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+146) | Guardians +1.5 (-178)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Padres at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Padres 2
Moneyline
BET GUARDIANS (-104).
I love the Guardians on Sunday afternoon. I love them even more knowing that they were embarrassed on Saturday being held to 1 hit. They don’t lose like that, especially at home where they are nearly 20 games above .500. Plus you’ve got Lively on the mound, who has been fantastic at Progressive Field this season. They win this game walking away and send San Diego packing on a down note.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I love the Guardians to win, I don’t need that run and to pay all that juice. I’ll stick with the moneyline bet.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8 (-110).
All the trends are pushing us toward the Under. Both games in this series thus far have gone Under. Cleveland has been Under in 6 straight games, while the Padres have been Under in 3 of their last 4.
You also have 2 pitchers on the mound with under 4 ERA on the season. Lively hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any home start this season. King has allowed just 1 ER in each of his last 4 road starts.
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