The San Diego Padres (11-7) meet the Cincinnati Reds (3-14) Wednesday for the second of their 3-game series at the Great American Ballpark. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego beat Cincy 9-6 in Monday’s series opener thanks to an 8-run 4th inning rally punctuated by a 3-run HR by Padres 1B Eric Hosmer.
Season series: Padres lead 4-0 and have outscored the Reds by 16 runs.
Padres at Reds projected starters
LHP MacKenzie Gore vs. RHP Vladimir Gutiérrez
Gore (1-0, 1.74 ERA) beat Cincy 6-0 in his last outing 7 days ago. He went 5 scoreless IP, 4 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
- vs. Reds on the current roster: 1.30 FIP with a .184 expected batting average (xBA), .252 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .296 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 35.0 K% and 87.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 20 plate appearances (PA).
Gutiérrez (0-3, 5.54 ERA) was on the losing end of that April 20 game vs. San Diego, hurling 4 2/3 IP, allowing 3 ER on 2 H and 4 BB with 2 K.
- Career vs. the Padres: 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA (14 IP, 14 ER), 16 H, 5 BB and 11 K in 3 starts over 2 MLB seasons.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 9.64 FIP with a .335 xBA, .465 xwOBA, .654 xSLG, 7.7 K% and 84.8 mph EV in 52 PA.
Padres at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:08 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (-105) | Reds +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Padres at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 7, Reds 3
Money line
PASS even though San Diego is the right side because the Padres (-175) is a little too expensive with a rookie starter on the mound.
But I’m confident enough in San Diego to bet the RL and I’d entertain putting the Padres in a parlay with a similarly priced line for a better payout.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET the PADRES -1.5 (-105) because Gore is a starting pitching prospect that the San Diego organization has been high on for years and because the Padres have a much better lineup and bullpen than the Reds +1.5 (-115).
Furthermore, Cincy’s lineup struggles against left-handed pitching. The Reds are just 1-5 overall versus lefties (all 5 losses were by at least 2 runs) and their lineup is 29th in wRC+ (61) and 28th in wOBA (.257), per FanGraphs.
On top of that, San Diego’s RL could certainly cash because of Cincy’s weak bullpen, which ranks 29th in both xFIP (4.42) and K/BB (1.85).
TAKE the PADRES -1.5 (-105).
Over/Under
LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-115) because Cincy’s home field has the third-highest park factor in the majors and the weather forecast is calling for double-digit mph winds blowing out to right-center field.
However, I cannot fully get down on the Over because of Cincy’s aforementioned struggles versus left-handers and because there’s more money on the Under whereas more of the public is betting the Over.
It appears as though the Under 8.5 (-107) could be the sharp side hence the LEAN OVER 8.5 (-115).
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