The San Diego Padres (49-33) go for a three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds (39-40) Thursday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Padres lead 6-0
San Diego, which swept Cincinnati in four games at Petco Park June 17-20, took the first two games of this series. The Padres won 7-5 in a rain-shortened tilt, which was called in the sixth inning, Wednesday after taking Tuesday’s opener 5-4.
LHP Ryan Weathers is projected to start the series finale for the Padres. The rookie is 3-2 with a 2.47 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 14 appearances, including 8 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 5 K for Triple-A El Paso June 24
- Career vs. Reds: No appearances
RHP Luis Castillo is penciled in to start for the Redlegs. The five-year veteran is 3-10 with a 5.14 ERA (84 IP, 48 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 16 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-1 home victory vs. Atlanta Braves Saturday
- Career vs. Padres: 2-3, 3.48 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 6 starts
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Padres at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Reds -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+150) | Reds +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Padres 6, Reds 4
Money line (ML)
SAN DIEGO (-105) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.
The Padres are the hottest team in baseball winning 11 of their last 12 games.
They’re also 6-0 vs. Cincinnati this season. Why stop now?
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Back the PADRES -1.5 (+150) with a QUARTER-UNIT play. They’ve covered the spread in 4 of their 6 games vs. the Reds.
Plus, Weathers has pitched well in his eight major-league starts, going 1-1 with a 2.78 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.1 K/9.
The reason for the small wager is because Castillo has pitched well lately. In five June starts, the 2019 All-Star posted a 1.71 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 6 ER) with 32 strikeouts. He’s just not getting run support as his record was only 2-2 for the month.
One of those losses was a tight 3-2 decision to the Padres June 20 when he yielded 3 runs (2 earned) on 6 hits and 3 walks with 7 K’s over 6 innings.
ATS records: Padres 43-39 | Reds 37-42
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS. The Reds are the best Over team in the NL while the Padres have cashed more Over tickets vs. Under wagers.
I’m just leery of Weathers, and especially Castillo, turning this into a low-scoring affair.
O/U records: Padres 44-37-1 | Reds 45-31-3
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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
| JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| 2021 MLB | 69-76-3 | 22-30-1 | -12.81 |
| 2020 MLB | 80-59-1 | 39-21 | +24.79 |
| 2021 (all sports) | 175-163-4 | 73-72-1 | +2.3 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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