The San Antonio Spurs (31-29) are in South Beach Wednesday for an 8 p.m. ET game against the Miami Heat (32-30) at American Airlines Arena. Below, we analyze the Spurs-Heat odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
San Antonio has won three in a row and five of its last six games. The only loss was a 107-87 beatdown at home against the Heat last Wednesday.
The Spurs are ninth in the Western Conference and are 4.5 games ahead of the 11th-place New Orleans Pelicans. They have the same record as the 8-seed Memphis Grizzlies but are behind on the tiebreaker.
Miami lost back-to-back games to the Chicago Bulls Monday and the Atlanta Hawks Friday. The losses followed a three-game win streak from April 18-21.
The seventh-seeded Heat are tied with the Boston Celtics for the sixth seed and are looking to jump the C’s since seeds 7-10 participate in the postseason play-in tournament.
Miami won and covered the spread in four of its past five meetings with San Antonio.
Spurs at Heat: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Spurs +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Heat -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Spurs +4.5 (-110) | Heat -4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Spurs at Heat: Key injuries
Spurs
- SG Derrick White (ankle) out
- PF Trey Lyles (ankle) out
Heat
- SG Tyler Herro (foot) questionable
- SG Kendrick Nunn (neck) questionable
- SG Victor Oladipo (knee) out
Special NBA Betting Promotion!
Place a $1 bet on either team’s money line, WIN an additional $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a 3-pointer during the game today. Promotion available in CO, IN, MI, NJ, TN, VA and WV. IA and PA residents, don’t miss BetMGM‘s risk-free, first-bet offer!
Place your legal, online sports bets at BetMGM! Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!
Spurs at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Spurs 109, Heat 104
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the SPURS (+155) for a quarter unit if at all because I “like” San Antonio plus the points, so much so in fact that I’ll sprinkle on the underdog’s money line.
The Spurs held a 2-point lead at the end of the first half of their 20-point blowout loss to the Heat last week before completely unraveling in the second half.
Basketball is a game of runs and sometimes these lopsided halves happen, but what’s more important is how the market has reacted to the previous matchup.
Miami was favored by 1.5 points in San Antonio and is only a 4.5-point favorite at home despite the 20-point win just last week. The Heat also have the sixth-best home winning percentage since the start of last season.
Play our new free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET SPURS +4.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of San Antonio’s money line.
The Spurs match up very well against the Heat. San Antonio has the third-best defensive field-goal percentage vs. attempts at the rim and Miami attempts the fifth-highest volume of shots at the rim, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Furthermore, San Antonio is 12-4 ATS as a road dog with a plus-4.4 spread differential and Miami is 10-14-1 ATS as a home favorite with a minus-2.9 spread differential this season.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because nearly 95% of the money wagered is on the Over, according to Pregame.com, and my instinct is to “fade” this one-sided of a market.
The rationale for the market barreling into the Over is the presumption San Antonio’s offense won’t completely tank in this meeting like it did in the second half of the first matchup.
What’s keeping my money in the wallet is the total hasn’t moved from the opener despite the lopsided betting handle and the total is just too low.
Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1368]