The Dallas Mavericks (2-1) host the San Antonio Spurs (1-3) Thursday at the American Airlines Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Spurs vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
After smacking around the Orlando Magic in their season opener, the Spurs have lost three in a row (1-2 against the spread) to the Denver Nuggets, Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers.
Dallas has won back-to-back games aginst the Toronto Raptors and Houston Rockets since losing its opener to the Atlanta Hawks 113-87. The Mavs are 20th in net rating with the third-worst effective field goal shooting (eFG%).
The Mavs won and covered two of their three regular-season meetings with the Spurs last season. Dallas All-Star Luka Doncic averaged 29.0 points per game (PPG) with 8.0 rebounds and 10.0 assists per game in the three meetings.
Spurs at Mavericks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Spurs +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Mavericks -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Spurs +5.5 (-105) | Mavericks -5.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Spurs at Mavericks key injuries
Spurs
- SF Doug McDermott (knee) out
Mavericks
- PF Kristaps Porzingis (back) out
Spurs at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 109, Spurs 106
Money line
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Spurs (+200) since I “lean” to San Antonio plus the points. The Spurs have a massive coaching edge and a plus-net rating despite their 1-3 record and last three opponents being playoff teams last season.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the SPURS +5.5 (-105) for a half-unit only because a slight majority of the market is backing San Antonio but there’s “reverse line movement” heading towards Dallas, according to Pregame.com. It’s always suspicious when sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
Two of the three Spurs-Mavericks meetings last season were decided by five or fewer points. Furthermore, Dallas’s offense has shot poorly out the gate this season and San Antonio’s defense has done a good job running opponents off the 3-point line.
The Mavs rank 28th in eFG% and the Spurs have the 11th-best defensive 3-point shooting and hold opponents to third-fewest 3-point attempts per game.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 220.5 (-115) for 1 unit as my favorite play in the Spurs-Mavericks game.
The Under has been hit by “sharp line movement”, as the market is pretty much split on the total but nearly 90% of the cash wagered is on the Under according to Pregame.com. The pro-Under money has steamed the total down from the 221.5-point opener to the current price.
San Antonio scores the second-most points per possession in transition, but Dallas gives up the third-fewest points per possession in transition on defense.
On top of that, we have the aforementioned strength-on-weakness matchup with San Antonio’s strong 3-point defense vs. Dallas’s poor 3-point shooting thus far.
Let’s follow the money and BET 1 unit UNDER 220.5 (-115).
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