The San Antonio Spurs (24-26) visit in-state rival Dallas Mavericks (29-22) for an 8 p.m. ET game at American Airlines Center. Below, we analyze the Spurs-Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
The sinking Spurs have lost five in a row and six of their last seven (2-5 against the spread) including back-to-back losses to the Denver Nuggets entering Sunday.
San Antonio is ninth in the Western Conference, with a half-game lead over the 10-seed Golden State Warriors, and two games in front of the 11th-place New Orleans Pelicans.
The Mavericks are heading in the opposite direction as the Spurs winning six of their last seven games (6-1 ATS) with recent victories over the Milwaukee Bucks and Utah Jazz.
Dallas is jostling for playoff positioning in hopes of avoiding the Western Conference play-in tournament and is seventh, 2.5 games back of the 6-seed Portland Trail Blazers.
Dallas is 2-0 overall and ATS this season against San Antonio and Mavs All-Star Luka Doncic has torn up the Spurs this year.
In the two Spurs-Mavericks games this season, Luka is averaging 29.0 points, 10.5 rebounds and 11.5 assists per game.
Spurs at Mavericks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Spurs +195 (bet $100 to win $195) | Mavericks -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Spurs +6 (-110) | Mavericks -6 (-110)
- Over/Under: 220.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Spurs at Mavericks: Key injuries
Spurs
- C Gorgui Dieng (shoulder) out
Mavericks
- C Willie Cauley-Stein (health and safety protocols) probable
- PF Maxi Kleber (lower leg) questionable
- SG J.J. Redick (heel) out
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Spurs at Mavericks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Mavericks 114, Spurs 104
Money line (ML)
PASS since Dallas is the right side, but the Mavericks (-250) are terrible value considering how random the NBA regular season can be.
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Against the spread (ATS)
The MAVERICKS -6 (-110) just match up too well with the Spurs. Dallas attempts the fifth-most 3-pointers per game and San Antonio has the 26th-ranked defensive 3-point percentage.
The Mavs also do a good job defending what the Spurs do frequently. San Antonio attempts the third-highest volume of midrange shots, but Dallas is eighth in defensive midrange shooting percentage, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Finally, the Spurs struggle against good teams, and the Mavericks have the ninth-best net rating in the Association.
San Antonio is 4-12 overall with minus-8.9 points per 100 possessions differential and the 21st-ranked ATS margin (according to CleaningTheGlass.com).
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 220.5 (-110) for a half-unit only because we are arriving at the party a little late as this total opened at 222.
Curiously enough, way more money and bets have been placed with the Over than the Under, so bookmakers moving the total down would suggest the House wants more Over action.
Both teams play at a below-average pace and the Under has cashed in four of the last five Mavericks-Spurs contests.
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