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The Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-4, 0-1 CUSA) and the Liberty Flames (4-0, 2-0) meet Thursday at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Va., for a Conference USA game. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (CBSSN). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Sam Houston State vs. Liberty odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Bearkats have dropped all 4 games and are trying to overcome an early-season offensive power outage. Sam Houston State scored a total of just 10 points in the first 3 games before a 28-point explosion at home against Jacksonville State in a 35-28 overtime loss last Thursday. After going 2-0 against the spread (ATS) in the first 2 games, Sam Houston is 0-1-1 ATS in the past 2 outings.
Sam Houston State’s defense allowed a total of just 27 points in the first 2 games, cashing the Under in each. The defense might be a bit tired, which would explain why it has been the complete opposite in the past 2 outings, yielding 36.5 points per game (PPG), resulting in 2 Overs.
Liberty has fired out of the chute with 4 victories and 4 covers, including a 2-0 SU/ATS mark at home. The Flames have split the Over-Under in the 4 games, including an Under (53.5) result last time out in a 38-6 road win at FIU in a conference game on Sept. 23.
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Sam Houston State at Liberty odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 9:39 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Sam Houston State +720 (bet $100 to win $720) | Liberty -1200 (bet $1,200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Sam Houston State +19.5 (-110) | Liberty -19.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Sam Houston State at Liberty picks and predictions
Prediction
Liberty 38, Sam Houston State 6
Moneyline
Liberty (-1200) will cost you 12 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not enough reward.
While the Flames are unbeaten and playing at home, and the Bearkats are winless, you simply cannot risk that much for such a small return.
AVOID.
Against the spread
LIBERTY -19.5 (-110) is a great play at home, as Sam Houston State just doesn’t have the offense to hang with the Flames.
LU has rolled up 33 or more points in all 4 games to date, and it has covered all 4 games, although this is easily the largest spread of the season. Still, it covered a double-digit spread as a 10-point road favorite at FIU on Sept. 23. The Flames are an impressive plus-7 in turnover ratio, too, which is another check mark in their favor.
The Bearkats finally awakened from their offensive slumber with 28 points at Jacksonville State, but are still averaging just 9.5 PPG overall. Sam Houston won’t be able to keep up with Liberty, especially on its home field.
Over/Under
UNDER 45.5 (-105) is the lean, but go lightly.
Sam Houston State will have difficulty solving the Liberty defense. The Flames have allowed just 16.7 PPG across the past 3 outings, cashing the Under in 2 of the past 3 games during the span.
Liberty’s defense has allowed just 310.8 total yards per game, and 182.3 passing yards per contest.
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