It’s a day that ends in “Y” so an NFL salary cap expert is anxiously studying the New Orleans Saints’ outlook. But this time they’re making predictions about it. Over The Cap’s Nick Korte writes that these five Saints veterans are entering dangerous territory, and that they’re in jeopardy of losing their roster spots in 2024.
Using a concept termed “contract fate” created by studying how teams treat veteran players after signing contracts, Korte found five outcomes were possible after players put pens to paper — negative “fates” like termination and pay cuts, along with positive “fates” in extensions and pay raises, along with a “fate” that’s fair for both the player and team in which the contract expires as written.
Korte then studied a sample size of more than 2,000 NFL contracts to find how often each “fate” occurred. And 50.7% of players are terminated before their contracts run out, while another 11.6% take pay cuts; a combined 62.3% of contracts ended with a negative outcome for the player. After breaking it down further into position groups, Korte took a look around the league and put together a list of players with “odds of negative contract fate” in 2023.
In other words, Korte suggests, these players might be fighting for their jobs in 2024. Despite having signed multi-year deals with the Saints, they’ll need to play at a high level in 2023 to return the following season. New Orleans is in the red by more than $63 million next year, though they can reach cap compliance again through another round of their usual restructures. Still, departures are possible.
Let’s break down each case and see whether we agree or disagree with Korte’s assessment: