NFL Twitter was turned on its head this week when it was announced that the Saints would replace Drew Brees, who landed on injured reserve with multiple broken ribs and a collapsed lung (yikes) with Taysom Hill, the 30-year-old mostly gadget quarterback to date who has attempted 20 passes in his NFL career, completing 11 for 255 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. It was Sean Payton’s call to give Hill the start over Jameis Winston in Sunday’s game against the Falcons.
“I think for Taysom, it’s just been timing,” quarterbacks coach Joe Lombardi said this week of the four-year NFL veteran, who’s been more of a runner and receiver to this point. “The quarterback position there’s a certain timing that goes with every play and trusting what you see and getting the ball off on time and there’s no one better at it than Drew. I would say that when Taysom got here maybe the ball came out a hitch later than you wanted it. Not always. There were times where he was going to wait a tick longer before he threw it and I think just his anticipation level, understanding what the receivers were doing and the timing of their routes, matching when he’s throwing the ball to that. That’s been the biggest improvement.”
This season, Hill has attempted just five passes, completing four, for 80 yards. Given his starting debut against a Falcons defense that has been below average this season (28th in Defensive DVOA against the pass in the first half of the 2020 campaign, and seventh against the run), and with a defense in his own pocket that has been playing tremendously of late (sixth in DVOA against the pass and first against the run), perhaps Hill can generate enough stuff to match Matt Ryan point-for-point.
But Lombardi’s comments about seeing things well and getting the ball off on time are really interesting, because when you carve the rushing and receiving attempts out of the picture and focus on his development as a pure passer, that’s exactly the problem I see.
Let’s start with this sack against the 49ers last week. Here, the Saints are running a deep crosser over the middle, with a fabulous overall play design: Hill has both pre-snap motion and play-action to distract and delay the underneath defenders, a deep post from the right side to take three (!) 49ers defenders over the top, and tight end Jared Cook [No. 87] and receiver Emmanuel Sanders [No. 17] running the intermediate crosser to create still more openings. Because the deep third has been vacated to Sanders’ crossing side, and linebacker Fred Warner [No. 54) is hanging underneath, Hill has Sanders coming wide open if he sees it.
Unfortunately, he does not.
Now, rewind to a similar concept against the Buccaneers in Week 9. This time, the Saints are running empty, with running back Alvin Kamara [No. 41] as the iso receiver. Fullback Michael Burton runs motion to give Hill a man defense indicator, and it’s Cook and receiver Michael Thomas [No. 13) running the slightly shorter crosser. This time, Hill understands that as safety Antoine Winfield Jr. [No. 31] is rolling with motion and linebacker Lavonte David [No. 54] is hanging underneath to that side, he’s got Cook wide open. Why Hill saw this in Week 9 and not in Week 10 is something you’d have to ask Hill, or the Saints’ coaching staff. Maybe the clear man look told Hill that he’d have an easier time reading crossers?
Even with clear openings, there are inherent issues with Hill’s timing and ball placement. You’ll notice that on the completion to Cook against the Buccaneers, Hill threw the ball behind Cook, and the veteran had to turn back to get it. That’s a 19-yard play, so no complaints there, but it could have been more if Cook had been thrown open and continued to run at full speed. You don’t want to create a speed disadvantage against linebacker Devin White, that’s for sure.
Here’s an example of ball placement issues. This is a 38-yard pass from Hill to Kamara based off the old Edelman flip [Tom Brady tossing the ball to Julian Edelman and taking advantage of the downfield openings for the Patriots]. Watch how Kamara has to stop to catch the ball. If you were grading this throw in a scouting combine throwing session, it would not go well. Again, nice play and great design, but more could have happened had Kamara been set up to run at full speed after the catch.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Sunday that there were people in the Saints’ organization that think Winston should be the starter in Brees’ stead, and there’s no guarantee that Hill will remain the starter if he struggles against one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses. It will be fascinating to see what Payton and his staff dial up specifically for Hill both as a passer and as a runner, but if Hill wants to be a long-term quarterback in this league as opposed to a gadget guy, he’ll have to show a lot of development in a very short time.