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The Pro Football Hall of Fame Game is just hours away, so everyone is running their preseason NFL power rankings to take stock of teams across the league before the bright lights come on and throw it all into disarray. So where does it leave the New Orleans Saints?
The latest take comes from Doug Farrar over at Touchdown Wire, who isn’t feeling too optimistic about New Orleans’ chances. After watching Drew Brees’ best years squandered by horrific defenses, he’s now forecasting the Saints to deal with the opposite situation thanks to a nebulous offense and still-strong defense. Here’s what he had to say about ranking the Saints at No. 16:
“Last season, the Saints finished second in Defensive DVOA, behind only the Steelers, and that defense could be just as good in 2021. But Brees is retired, and Payton’s options at quarterback are Jameis Winston, the only quarterback in NFL history to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season, and Taysom Hill, the erstwhile Swiss Army Knife who is the darling of every NFL gameday commentator despite proving very little from a starting perspective in his four-year career.
Ideally, Winston shows enough improvement to run this offense (maybe the LASIK surgery pays off?), and Hill can be utilized in specific packages — hopefully without Payton tanking drives by insisting on throwing Hill out there on third down with less than optimal results. If neither option works? Well, there are quarterbacks in next year’s draft, and until then, Payton will just have to live with his defense being several steps ahead of his offense.”
It’s a fair evaluation, though the many losses the Saints defense took this offseason could create more stability than expected. And that shot at Taysom Hill’s third-down usage is off-target — in his career on third downs, Hill has converted 17 of 34 pass attempts (50%) while picking up 23 first downs on 40 carries (57.5%) and moving the chains on 6 of his 13 receptions (46.2%). New Orleans went 93-of-208 on third downs as a team last year (44.7%), meaning Hill has been one of their most reliable options in that area with a combined third-down conversion rate of 52.9%, totaling 46 conversions on 87 tries.
There’s certainly an argument to stick with one quarterback or the other under center. Maintaining a continuity of communication is important. But Hill’s strengths are clear and obvious, and Payton isn’t going to take him out of the situations he performs at his best. It’s also too soon to write him out as their next starting quarterback. Both passers have kept the competition close a week into training camp.
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