Saints finish last in NFC South, but will still pick after a division rival

Despite finishing last in the NFC South, the New Orleans Saints will still pick after the Carolina Panthers due to a strength of schedule tiebreaker:

With the dust settling on Week 18, the New Orleans Saints now hold the No. 9 pick in the 2025 NFL draft — with the Carolina Panthers slotted at No. 8. But the Saints managed to finish last in their division for the 2024 season for a variety of tiebreaking decisions, as it went down to the third tier of tiebreaker. Here is how that was handled:

  1.  Head-to-head record – Both teams had a win this season against each other.
  2. Division Record – Both teams completed the season with a 2-4-0 divisional record
  3. Record in common games (games in which both teams had the same opponent at some point in the year) – Saints finished 2-10 in these games, Panthers finished 3-9.

One single win split these two teams apart in the divisional standings, where the Panthers beat the Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, and Atlanta Falcons once, the Saints only beat the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants from the list of common games.

With this in mind, the tiebreaker for draft picks is different, as its first method to break up the deadlock is strength of schedule. The belief is teams with an easier strength of schedule should get a better pick, as it means they had the same record against worse opponents. For the 2024 season, the Saints had a .507 strength of schedule to the Panthers’ .496, meaning the Panthers had easier opponents overall, and get the better pick as a result.

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