The Minnesota Timberwolves (12-38) host the Sacramento Kings (22-28) Monday at Target Center for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Kings-Timberwolves odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Minnesota lost back-to-back, four of five, and seven of its last nine games. But, the T-Wolves are 3-1 against the spread in the last four games with covers in losses over the Brooklyn Nets (March 29) and Philadelphia 76ers (Saturday).
Sacramento is on a three-game losing skid (1-2 ATS), which followed a five-game win streak (4-1 ATS).
The Kings are flirting with playoff contention, currently sitting 12th in the Western Conference, one game back of 10th-place Golden State Warriors for the final spot in the postseason play-in tournament.
The Kings won last season’s series with the Timberwolves 2-1 straight up and ATS, including victories in the last two games.
However, Kings leading scorer PG De’Aaron Fox exited Sacramento’s loss to Minnesota’s last season with an injury after just two minutes.
Kings at Timberwolves: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Kings -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Timberwolves +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Against the spread/ATS: Kings -4.5 (-110) | Timberwolves +4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 235.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Kings at Timberwolves: Key injuries
Kings
- C Hassan Whiteside (knee) questionable
- PF Marvin Bagley III (hand) out
Timberwolves
- PG Ricky Rubio (back) doubtful
- PG D’Angelo Russell (knee) doubtful
- SG Malik Beasley (hamstring) doubtful
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Kings at Timberwolves: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Kings 123, Timberwolves 106
Money line (ML)
PASS because I “LEAN” to Sacramento covering the spread in this spot, but it is just 2-3 straight up as a road favorite so laying -190 with the Kings is out of the question.
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Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to KINGS -4.5 (-110) because, currently, 80% of the handle is on Sacramento, which has moved the line up from the 2-point opener (according to Pregame.com).
Simply put, 80% of sports bettors don’t beat the “House” and it’s generally not profitable following a crowd.
On the other hand, the pro-Sacramento case is also simple. Both teams are in the bottom 10 of net efficiency but Minnesota is terrible against bottom-rung squads.
The Timberwolves are 4-11 overall with the worst net efficiency and the lowest ATS margin (minus-6.8 points) vs. bottom-10 teams in points per 100 possessions differential, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
BET KINGS -4.5 (-110) for a half unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Minnesota could be without four backcourt players, including its second-and third-leading scorers and leader in assists per game.
Even though Sacramento has the worst defensive rating in the Association, it’s going to be a lot of inefficient SF Anthony Edwards usage for Minnesota and I don’t know who on the T-Wolves gets C Karl-Anthony Towns the ball in a good spot.
I “LEAN” to the UNDER 235.5 (-110) for a half-unit if Rubio, Beasley and Russell aren’t playing for Minnesota.
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