In the top 10 of the last two NBA drafts, the Cleveland Cavaliers selected two different guards. In 2018, the Cavs drafted Collin Sexton eighth and in 2019, Darius Garland fifth.
Both are score-first initiators with passing and defensive questions. A year and a half in, Sexton doesn’t look like a star initiator and it is likely too early to tell for Garland.
Despite Cleveland investing heavy draft capital in small initiator prospects high, its best prospect is Kevin Porter Jr., drafted with the 30th pick, traded from Detroit. Though Porter plays the fewest minutes out of their trio of prospects, he’s shown the most to suggest a high ceiling, harnessing the game-changing skills he flashed at USC into tangible, in-game value.
Over his last seven games, Porter seems to have turned a corner.
Hitting double-digit scoring in every game, Porter is putting up 16.1 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game, shooting 50% from three on a 62.9% true shooting. He’s steadily improved his production and efficiency all season, his numbers improving each month:
At USC, Porter dazzled with elite athleticism, not just in the traditional run-jump but in his balance, body control and change of momentum. In the NBA, Porter’s athletic tools continue to benefit him, his elite vertical explosion making highlight dunks and speed to power and-ones commonplace. One of the more underrated facets of athleticism, he hits 0-60 in a flash, dislodging defenders with momentum built up in one direction:
That athleticism is the catalyst for a dynamic and versatile scoring package Porter continues to hone. Beginning with Porter’s shooting, he’s shown promise as a floor spacer early in his career. Shooting 52.2% from the line in college with wonky mechanics, skepticism for Porter’s shooting projection was reasonable.
42 games into his career, he’s quieting that skepticism, shooting almost 35% from three on 6.3 threes per 100 possessions. His free throw percentage has taken a leap, shooting a respectable 71.1% on 76 attempts. Spotting up, Porter is elite, placing in the 97th percentile on catch and shoot jumpers on a ridiculous 70.8% effective field goal percentage.
Dragging Porter’s overall shooting numbers down is his off-dribble shooting. Struggling to hit shots consistently off the dribble, Porter has a 29% effective field goal percentage here, placing in the 16th percentile. He’s attempted a high volume of these, shooting 105 total pull-up jumpers this season.
Despite this inefficiency, there is reason to believe in Porter’s pull-up long term because of his handle and space creation, which is Porter’s best skill and his avenue to stardom. Few players can match the twitchiness of his handle, his marionette control of the ball, changing speeds and directions on a dime to freeze defenders.
Though he isn’t making his off dribble jumpers at a high clip, the space Porter creates on some of these plays is absurd. He’s already a master of the stepback and snatchback to generate open shots and with continued open looks, the shot should fall eventually:
Porter’s omnidirectional handle opens up runways to the rim with regularity. 66% of Porter’s shots come at the rim (81st percentile) and he’s shooting a ridiculous 73.6% at the bucket. The aforementioned elite burst and vertical pop lead to plenty of easy finishes and tough ones through contact.
Defenders buckle at Porter’s bevy of dribble moves, counters and changing pace and directions. Wielding hesitation dribbles and quick crossovers along with his burst and finishing through contact, Porter knifes to the rim with ease:
All of the elements of Porter’s offensive game sing together in harmony, accentuating each other. The primary example of this is his passing, bolstered by Porter’s shooting and rim gravity. Porter’s vision and passing complexity has improved as the season has progressed.
His best pass is the interior dump-off; almost half of his assists come at the rim. Porter draws help in a myriad of ways and lays passes off to open big men and cutters with regularity.
Defenders have to close out hard due to Porter’s spot-up threat and his burst means containing drives off of the catch is an extremely difficult proposition. He blows by Siakam, drawing defenders and dropping it off to Kevin Love:
When Porter drives downhill off of the pick and roll, he’s adept at hitting the roll man when help converges. Seamlessly changing directions, Porter toys with defenders, dancing around screens until he finds a crease. Once Porter is in the paint, his head remains up, patiently waiting for an interior pass to open up, feeding bigs with precise timing and emerging live dribble craft:
Porter lacks advanced passing vision and technical craft, which is fine; he’s a rookie and doesn’t project as a primary creator. Still, there’s room for improvement as a live dribble facilitator. He misses two narrow windows here to Larry Nance, first on the pocket pass/wraparound, then the dump-off after he circles the baseline:
That being said, Porter has shown steady improvement in his passing complexity, vision and willingness to make tough reads. He’s gaining confidence in this early pocket pass:
Maybe most importantly and most underrated, Porter’s decision making is genuinely good. Porter still attempts a few too many difficult pull-ups, but his decision making improvement from his college career is significant. More often than he isn’t, Porter is making the right, simple play and playing in the flow of the offense.
Porter’s consistency in seeking the best shot for his teammates is impressive for his age. He finds big men with guards switched onto them, makes quick decisions in the pick and roll and makes simple extra passes, on kick-outs off of drives and swings on the perimeter:
Defensively, Porter has areas to improve, as most rookies and young players do. Most of his struggles come on the ball. Attackers beat Porter off of the bounce too often and he has troubles against ball screens. He’s undisciplined with his footwork in a stance on the ball and fighting through screens, leading to too many easy paths to the basket for opponents. Though his team defense is better, he can overhelp at times, leading to open shots:
Generally, there should be some optimism with his defense. Player Impact Plus-Minus agrees with Porter posting a -0.15 DPIPM, a solid number for a rookie. His off-ball defense was especially good, as Porter is already performing the minutiae of NBA team defense: playing the weak side in pick and roll coverage, cutting off easy passes to the weak side when penetration occurs and playing with generally good effort.
Porter’s athleticism offers a strong defensive baseline and the effort/IQ he has shown early is a promising sign for his defensive potential as he grows technically and mentally:
The Cleveland Cavaliers are a dysfunctional mess. They parted ways with John Beilein, traded for Andre Drummond and have the East’s worst record. If nothing else, Porter shouldn’t see his opportunity decrease any time soon, especially if he continues to play as he has.
With continued development from all of their prospects, the Cavs could have a good problem on their hands. Early in his career, Porter looks like the best future prospect on the Cavaliers. His scoring package, combined with continued passing and defensive improvement, offers upside as a secondary or tertiary creator on a great team.
Heading into the second half of the season, Porter will have the chance to ascend into the upper tiers of young talent in an NBA loaded with it.
All stats are accurate through Feb. 20
[lawrence-related id=8375,12160,12140]