Rockets tiebreaker FAQ: Where Houston stands vs. West rivals

With five regular-season games left to play, the Rockets could still finish anywhere from No. 2 to No. 7 in the Western Conference.

Entering Wednesday, with five games left to play in the NBA’s 2019-20 regular season, the Houston Rockets could still finish anywhere from No. 2 to No. 7 in the tightly packed Western Conference standings.

The Rockets (42-25) have already clinched their spot in the 2020 NBA playoffs, which will begin around August 17. But as far as postseason seeding and matchups, much remains undecided heading into the final five games. (As a reminder, all 22 teams invited to the league’s restart at Disney World are playing eight regular-season contests.)

Houston cannot finish in a tie with Dallas (41-29) or Denver (44-23) due to uneven schedules, with both having played more games than the Rockets at the time of the season’s COVID-19 hiatus in March. In cases where games are not even, the NBA is deferring to winning percentage to determine placement in the standings.

Even with unbalanced schedules, both the Mavs and Nuggets still figure heavily into tiebreaker math for the Rockets, considering the role of division winners in those procedures. In ties involving three or more teams, the initial criteria is that a division winner wins a tie over a non-division winner. In two-team ties, it’s second after head-to-head results.

Division Importance

Based on the importance of a division championship, the Rockets can generally be expected to fare well in most ties.

Here’s why: With five games left, the Rockets lead Dallas by 2.5 games in the Southwest Division. The only way Houston doesn’t win the division is if the Mavericks outplay them by at least three games over the final five, i.e. the Rockets finish 1-4, while Dallas goes 4-1. This is why Houston’s comeback win over the Mavs last Friday was so critical.

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Should the Rockets collapse down the stretch, it would almost assuredly mean that a three-way tie isn’t possible, anyway. For example, the Rockets are currently tied in the loss column with Utah (42-25) and Oklahoma City (41-25). The only way Houston doesn’t win its division is if it loses at least three of the final five games — and if that’s the case, it’s hard to envision both the Jazz and Thunder doing the same.

The Jazz, Thunder, and Los Angeles Clippers (45-22) are all teams that can finish in a tie with the Rockets, since 72 regular-season games will be the final total for each of them. Assuming Houston holds off Dallas, here’s a look at the various potential scenarios that could be at play.

Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder

If Houston ends up in a two-team tie with the Jazz or Thunder, the math is simple. The Rockets would win it against Utah by virtue of winning two out of the three games this season. Houston would lose a tie versus Oklahoma City, since the Thunder took two of three from the Rockets.

But what happens if all three end up tied? That’s where it gets complicated. At the moment, should all three teams win out (remember, they all have 25 losses), that’s exactly what would happen.

If the division standings stay as they are today — with Houston holding off Dallas for the Southwest, and Denver topping Utah and Oklahoma City in the Northwest — the result would be the Rockets at No. 4, Thunder at No. 5, and Jazz at No. 6. The first-round playoff series in that scenario would be No. 4 Houston versus No. 5 Oklahoma City, and No. 6 Utah against the No. 3 seed (most likely Denver, but possibly the Clippers).

Projecting by current division standings, Houston is the only champion among the trio. As a result, the Rockets would earn the top spot in that group. From there, the second spot would be determined by head-to-head results, and Oklahoma City beat Utah two of three times.

There is one potential curveball. The Nuggets currently have several injuries to rotation players, and their division lead is less than three games. What happens if they struggle down the stretch, and either the Jazz or Thunder emerge as the winner of the Northwest Division?

If Utah wins the Northwest, then Houston still finishes first in a three-way tie involving the Jazz and Thunder. The Thunder would be immediately culled due to not winning its division, and then the Rockets would top the Jazz based on head-to-head. If Oklahoma City were to win the Northwest, the ordering would be Thunder-Rockets-Jazz, since both the Thunder and Rockets would be division winners, but Oklahoma City would have the two-team advantage due to head-to-head results.

In short, the Rockets cannot finish third in a three-team tiebreaker with the Jazz and Thunder. They would probably finish first, though there is a remote scenario — if Denver collapses and Oklahoma City surges — where they could finish second among those three teams.

Finally, it’s also worth noting that there’s not much difference between being the No. 4 seed or the No. 5, since both are on the same side of the playoff bracket (the NBA does not re-seed after each round), and there is no apparent home-court advantage at the Florida “bubble.”

However, there is a big gap between No. 5 and No. 6, or No. 3 and No. 4, since those would draw distinct first-round opponents and be on different sides of the bracket. The winner of the 4-5 matchup would be slotted to face the No. 1 Lakers in the second round, while the 3-6 winner would be on the side of the No. 2 seed — probably the Clippers.

Los Angeles Clippers

After Tuesday’s loss to Portland, it appears unlikely that the Rockets could make up their three-game deficit to Los Angeles with only five left. Even if the Rockets finished at 5-0, the Clippers would have to go 2-3 or worse in order for Houston to pass them.

That said, it is mathematically possible. And if somehow it occurred, the Rockets would almost certainly have the tiebreaker.

The crosstown rival Lakers have already won the Northwest, so the Clippers cannot be a division winner. And in four head-to-head meetings this season, the Rockets and Clippers split with two wins apiece.

Thus, the two-team tiebreaker would be determined by division status, with Houston holding a trump card as the Southwest champion. Should it be a tie involving three or more teams, the Rockets would also top the Clippers in the initial tiebreaker step as a division winner.

Houston does not play Wednesday, which could make for a fun day of scoreboard watching as we start to learn which of the various playoff scenarios are most likely to take hold. Regarding teams of note to the Rockets, Utah plays Memphis at 1:30 Central; Denver faces San Antonio at 3:00 p.m.; and Oklahoma City plays the Lakers at 5:30 p.m.

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