With former Houston GM Daryl Morey headed to Philadelphia, it’s natural for many around the NBA to speculate on whether Morey might try to lure Rockets star James Harden to rejoin him on the East Coast.
But it’s highly unlikely that such a transaction could occur in 2020. Per ESPN’s Tim MacMahon, who covers the Rockets, the team has no interest in a potential swap involving Harden and 76ers guard Ben Simmons.
Speaking on colleague Brian Windhorst’s podcast, MacMahon said:
I’ve already been told with a few expletives included by somebody with the Rockets: ‘No, Daryl, James Harden for Ben Simmons is not happening. Don’t ask.’
On the surface, the Harden-Simmons speculation is understandable. Should the Rockets ever want to rebuild, the 24-year-old Simmons is seven years younger than Harden, and his salary ($29 million next season) is large enough to potentially make the math work on a trade. (Since both the Sixers and Rockets are above the salary cap, each team would have to send out close to as much money as it takes in.)
A two-time NBA All-Star, Simmons averaged 16.4 points (58.0% FG), 8.0 assists, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.1 steals per game last season. But he’s certainly not at the level of Harden, the three-time defending NBA scoring champion and a perennial MVP finalist. It would also be difficult for the Rockets to play a backcourt of Simmons and Russell Westbrook together, since both are dependent on driving to the basket and neither has the 3-point shooting to help space the floor for the other.
The only way the Rockets might be incentivized to consider a Simmons-Harden deal is if they feared Harden leaving for no compensation in free agency, and the soonest he could potentially do that is in 2022. (To this point, there have been no indications that he’s unhappy in Houston.)
Even if Harden did want out, though, there’s hardly any precedent for an NBA team trading an elite player of his stature who is under contract for multiple seasons moving forward. Those types of leveraged trades only tend to happen within about a year of the star’s potential free agency, as was the case with Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans in June 2019. In the case of Harden and the Rockets, a similar inflection point could be reached in the 2021 offseason, not in 2020.
Moreover, “tanking” also isn’t a realistic option for the Rockets in the 2020-21 season, since Oklahoma City has the right to swap first-round draft picks with them in 2021 from the Chris Paul-Westbrook trade. On the other hand, Houston has full control of its picks in 2022 and 2023, which could make a rebuild more realistic then (if Harden wants out).
As a result of those factors, Houston’s likely path for the 2020-21 season is to give it another go with their duo of recent MVPs, and perhaps surround Harden and Westbrook with additional talent acquired via trade and/or through the use of the Mid-Level Exception (MLE).
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Speaking on a separate podcast of ESPN colleague Adrian Wojnarowski, MacMahon expressed a similar viewpoint. His comments:
What I can say is right now the Rockets are 100% committed to trying to cash in on James Harden’s prime. They consider him the best player in the league, which you know… He’s without question a perennial MVP candidate. That’s just a simple fact. They’re going to try to win a championship as long as he’s at that level and as long as he’s on board.
I think at this point it’s probably a year-to-year deal. If I’m speculating, I’m going to say that decision is more than likely made by James Harden instead of made by the Rockets. In other words, it could get to a point… And I don’t believe this is imminent. Again, I think it’s a year-to-year situation where at some point James Harden, who has tried repeatedly to pair with a superstar to give him a chance to a championship: first Dwight [Howard], then Chris Paul, and now with Russ. If James Harden wants to pair with another superstar, he’s probably going to have to be the one to pack his bags. Is that next offseason? Is that the offseason after that? We’ll see. Obviously a lot of that depends on what happens with the Rockets over these next one or two years.
Depending on what happens in the 2020-21 season, the Morey-Harden connection might eventually make a reunion in Philadelphia possible. After all, acquiring a young All-Star in Simmons who is under contract through the 2023-24 season is certainly a better scenario for the Rockets than losing Harden for no compensation in 2022 free agency.
But the soonest that would likely be realistic is the 2021 offseason. For now, it’s understandably not seen as an option from Houston’s end.
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