After a brief bump in the road, the Scumbag System ™ is back on track. Last week’s 2-1 record — only the Titans’ sudden competence could slow it down — pushed the Rhode Island Scumbag to 8-4-1 through four weeks.
That included some boring bets — rooting for the unders in a down year for many NFL offenses — and faith in an Atlanta Falcons team that managed to not only upset the Cleveland Browns but did so while completing only seven passes (and, thus, destroying the brains of anyone who took Kyle Pitts in the third round of their fantasy drafts). It was a vital bounceback for our handicapper. Now he’s putting his system up against Week 5.
In his words:
This week will test our handicapping focus and discipline. It is always tempting to splash around after a winning week. That is how casinos make a lot of their money back.
Understand this… the money you just won (if you followed this article) is yours. It isn’t “profit” or “house money.” This is your money.
Be smart and stick to the unit system. Place one unit on all of your base plays. Bump that to two or three units if you’re feeling very bullish, but don’t extend beyond that.
There are eight plays that match our systems. We can’t make eight bets in a day. We’d take on too much risk and put the likelihood of an undefeated betting day basically out of reach. We’ll have to look at the eight games and trim the fat. The two pure system plays — home underdogs in conference games — are:
- New York Jets +3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
- Arizona Cardinals +5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The divisional game unders (17-5 to the under from my rough calculation) in play are:
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans under 45
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons under 48.5
- Jets vs. Dolphins under 44.5
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears under 44
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals under 48.5
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders under 52.5
You can’t ignore 17-5 so I’m going to select 2 of these and then add in a side. I’m going to abandon the first system for two reasons. First, I’ve seen Philly play. I’m not going to bet against them until I see a valid reason. Second, I made a vow to myself that I will NOT be including the New York Jets in any more of my plays.
Alright then, we’ve got a basic menu. Let’s see what this week’s selections are.