Revisiting predictions and the process that went into making them is a good way to get better at predicting things in the future, even if football remains a highly difficult sport to predict each and every year.
Back in early September, we made eight bold predictions for the Green Bay Packers in 2019. Some hit, some didn’t.
Let’s revisit all eight:
1. Za’Darius Smith, over 12 sacks: Watching Smith this summer at training camp practices made it clear he was going to break out in a major way in 2019. He just dominated everything he did. There was just something special about the way he handled his business in pass-rushing drills and team work. It all translated into a historic first season in Green Bay. He finished with 15.5 sacks and 41 quarterback hits in 18 games, led the NFL in total pressures and made the Pro Bowl. Like he showed all summer, Smith became a dominant one-on-one rusher, and the Packers used his versatility perfectly.
2. Aaron Rodgers, completion percentage over 67.0: The thought here was that Matt LaFleur’s new offense would give Rodgers more easy completions and lessen the needs for throwaways, creating a big jump in completion percentage. It didn’t happen. Rodgers cut down on his throwaways but actually completed a lesser percentage of passes (62.0, down from 62.3) in 2019. A lack of difference-makers in the passing game and the growing pains in a new scheme crippled efficiency. Rodgers’ accuracy really waned at times, too. Expect a jump back around 63 or 64 percent in 2020. He should be more comfortable in the offense, and help is coming this offseason.
3. Aaron Jones, Pro Bowl: This one should have hit. The 2019 season truly was a special mix of immense talent meeting new opportunity in LaFleur’s offense. Over 18 games, Jones exploded for career-highs in touches, rushing yards (1,202), receiving yards (505), total yards (1,707) and touchdowns (23). The guess was Jones would go over 1,500 total yards if he played in every regular-season game. He actually created 1,558 total yards over 16 games.
4. Elgton Jenkins, 8 or more starts: Another big hit. He looked too talented during the summer to keep out of the lineup for long. By Week 2, he was rotating in with Lane Taylor. By Week 3, he was the undisputed starter after Taylor went down with an injury. He played every single snap the rest of the way. Overall, Jenkins started 16 of 18 games. Pro Bowls could be in his future.
5. Robert Tonyan, more targets than Jimmy Graham: A miss. The thought here was Tonyan would end up being a better fit at tight end in LaFleur’s offense, causing Graham to be slowly phased out of the offense. The last part happened, but Tonyan wasn’t a huge beneficiary. A midseason hip injury really hurt his chances of solidifying a big role. Tonyan finished with only 15 targets over 11 games. Graham had 60 in 16.
6. Tony Brown, 8 or more starts: Another miss. Brown spent most of the summer making plays as a starter for the No. 1 defense. He looked like a prime candidate to take that second-year jump and become a legit contributor. It didn’t happen. Brown played a supporting role on defense in Week 1 but was quickly relegated to nothing more than special teams duty. By November, the Packers had seen enough and cut him. There’s probably more to that story. He made zero starts. The real breakout star of the secondary was Chandon Sullivan, another summer stud. This missed prediction was a case of overrating a young player’s development potential.
7. Rashan Gary, under 3 sacks: A big hit. Although Gary flashed during the summer, it was clear he would need time to develop into a difference-making player. Expecting instant impact was overly optimistic, and the Packers were always going to lean on veteran additions Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith at edge rusher. Gary played in all 16 games but finished with just two sacks. He struggled to win one-on-ones and had a marginal role as a rotational rusher.
8. Packers will start 8-5: The Packers actually started 10-3. There was hope the Packers could use all the early home games to create a cushion before a tough stretch, and that’s exactly what happened. However, few predicted the Packers would go 3-0 over road games in Chicago, Dallas and Kansas City. They won six games by eight points or fewer in the first 13 games, so 8-5 wasn’t a terrible guess. By the time the Packers were preparing to face a three-game stretch against the NFC North to end the season, they were all but assured of a playoff spot. They took care of business, winning the division with a victory in Minnesota in Week 16 and clinching a first-round bye with a comeback win in Detroit. Based on point differential and expected W-L, the Packers had the look of a 10-6 team in 2019. They were overachievers. But that sure beats the alternative.
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