Rest of the AFC East is trending up while Patriots are trending down

In the AFC East, the New England Patriots may be handing off their crowns to a new batch of talent.

Since the turn of the century, the AFC East has been almost completely dominated by the New England Patriots. They’ve won 17 of 20 potential division titles. However, as we enter the third decade, the Patriots appear to be the only team in the AFC East that’s trending down.

New England may have won 12 games this past season, but an average viewer can tell that it wasn’t the same performance we’re used to seeing. They faced the second-easiest schedule in the NFL, and they took advantage. Three of their four losses came against the other three division winners from the AFC, and the final loss came in an extremely important Week 17 bout with the Dolphins that would cost the Patriots a first-round bye.

A team that is often considered the golden  standard for stability has a lot of questions for the future. Tom Brady is set to be a free agent for the first time in his career. And while it’s possible he returns, it’s not a guarantee. The Patriots have many other important players that are pending free agents including starting left guard Joe Thuney, longtime safety Devin McCourty, and Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee linebacker Kyle Van Noy. With Core special teamer and noted leader Matthew Slater and linebacker Elandon Roberts could also be out the door with their contracts expiring. Four of the teams’ seven captains are not guaranteed to return.

But, what about the rest of the division?

Buffalo

In 2019, the Bills made the playoffs for the second time in three years. They finished the season 10-6 and were constantly breathing down the neck of the Patriots. With Josh Allen under center, the Bills took a four-game jump this year in part to his growth. The former seventh overall pick’s passer rating rose nearly 20 points, while he saw increases in his passing yards, passing touchdowns, and a drop in his interceptions. Don’t forget that Allen is also one of the biggest running threats from the quarterback position. Since he entered the league, he’s scored 17 touchdowns on the ground, the most by any quarterback in the last two years — Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson are tied for second with 12.

It starts at the top in Buffalo. General Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott have done a great job of putting together three great units. Last offseason, they bolstered their offense by bringing in receiver John Brown in free agency and running back Devin Singletary in the draft. Brown eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark in his first season in Buffalo, and Singletary, despite missing time with a hamstring injury, totaled nearly 800 rushing yards at a 5.1 yards per attempt pace.

That’s before mentioning their defense which was clearly their best group in 2019. Buffalo’s defense gave up 16.5 points per game (second-fewest) and 196.6 passing yards per game (fourth-fewest). A lot of those numbers are helped by third-year cornerback and 2019 First-Team All-Pro Tre’Davious White. According to Pro Football Focus, White has allowed a 57.7 passer rating when being targeted over the past two seasons which is the third-lowest rating among eligible cornerbacks. While they have received a lot of key contributions from veterans like Jerry Hughes and Lorenzo Alexander, there are a lot of great young pieces on the defense that should be mainstays including 2019 first-round pick Ed Oliver, 2018 first-round pick Tremaine Edmunds, and second-year cornerback Levi Wallace.

I’m not as sold on Allen as I am on other young quarterbacks in the league, but I am sold on McDermott, Beane, and the Bills’ plan. There’s enough in place to make them competitors in the AFC.

New York

The 2019 New York Jets season was plagued by injury and illness. Quarterback Sam Darnold missed three weeks while dealing with mononucleosis. In those weeks, the Jets were one of the worst teams in football with quarterbacks Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk under center,  scoring only 23 points combined and resulting in zero wins. If Darnold hadn’t missed those starts, the Jets could’ve easily been in the running for a Wild Card spot.

New York didn’t exactly have the best luck when it came to other injuries either. In Week 1, receiver Quincy Enunwa, who had just signed a four-year deal, suffered a neck injury that ended his season. The team’s biggest free agent acquisition, C.J. Mosley, went down with a groin injury in Week 1 as well, and the only other game he played in was an attempt to return in Week 7 before he was shut down. tight end Chris Herndon was suspended for four games and ended the season on IR with a rib injury. Top cornerback Trumaine Johnson suffered an ankle injury that cost him most of his season. Starting center Ryan Kalil was placed on IR following Week 8 with a knee. Longtime right guard Brian Winters’ shoulder injury caused him to miss the final seven weeks.

Oh, and don’t forget the whole situation with guard Kelechi Osemele that cost him his season. By the end of the year, three of the five projected offensive line starters missed at least seven games.

In total, the Jets had $35 million of their cap on injured reserve, the second-highest of all teams.

With some of these guys coming back and some coming off the books, the Jets will have much more talent and money to work with. They enter the off-season with an estimated $50+ million in cap space and the seventh overall pick in the draft. That should be more than enough to continue supplying Sam Darnold with weapons, re-tooling an aging offensive line, and adding to a middling defense.

There are concerns with the coach, but the Jets have the quarterback. They can continue building around him to solidify themselves as competitors for the AFC East crown.

Miami

Despite trading away a lot of talented players in 2019, the Dolphins managed to win five games, including the previously mentioned Week 17 match-up with New England. How many teams could overcome the loss of a First-Team All-Pro free safety, a First-Team All-Pro left tackle, a Second-Team All-Pro cornerback, and their starting running back all while learning a new system from a first-year head coach? Well, the Dolphins dealt with it and found some success along the way.

Now, they find themselves with a lot of young players who are putting forth an inspiring effort to be the best they can be. On top of that, due to the plethora of trades they made, the Dolphins find themselves with three first-round picks this season – the highest being fifth overall. In total, Miami has 14 selections in the 2020 NFL Draft that they can use to really speed up the team’s rebuild.

Their quarterback position remains an interesting situation. Ryan Fitzpatrick is under contract for another year at a team-friendly $8 million cap hit. Josh Rosen, who the Dolphins traded for last off-season, still has at least two seasons left on his rookie deal. I would be pretty surprised if they didn’t take a QB in this upcoming draft, and they may be willing to take a risk on Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa who missed the end of the season with a hip injury. With these other options, they will still be able to get by if the rookie misses time while recovering.

There’s enough in place to say they are moving in the right direction after one year with Brian Flores.

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