The No. 23 Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (8-4) Monday in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa is at noon ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Mississippi State vs. Illinois odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
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The Mississippi State Bulldogs come into this game after the passing of coach Mike Leach with heavy hearts and determination. The Bulldogs won the Egg Bowl 24-22 at Ole Miss in his final game on Nov. 24. Coach Zach Arnett will take over for this game and has been named the new coach after spending the past 2 seasons as defensive coordinator. While the choice to not go was an option, the Bulldogs players felt it was a proper way to lay tribute to coach Leach by playing in this game.
Illinois will be dealing with opt-outs from 3 of its most important players: twins RB Chase Brown and S Sydney Brown as well as CB Devon Witherspoon. As a run-first team that relied heavily on its secondary, these are massive losses for coach Bret Bielema.
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Mississippi State vs. Illinois odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 12:23 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mississippi State -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Illinois +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mississippi State -2.5 (-110) | Illinois +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46 (O: -111 | U: -109)
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Mississippi State vs. Illinois picks and predictions
Prediction
Mississippi State 28, Illinois 17
Moneyline
PASS.
The price the Bulldogs (-135) is solid if you are adding it to a parlay. But Mississippi State should cover the short line here, so I’d rather take the better value on the spread.
Against the spread
BET MISSISSIPPI STATE -2.5 (-110).
QB Will Rodgers will have the benefit of a fuller complement of players in this game. Although leading WR Rara Thomas has entered the transfer portal to head to Georgia, Mississippi State uses enough players on offense to minimize this loss.
Illinois’ opt-outs will be difficult to overcome. I expect Mississippi State to score enough to easily cover this number. MISSISSIPPI STATE -2.5 (-110) is my favorite play in this game.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 46 (-109).
Illinois had a top 5 defense for most of the season in 2022, and that played a major part in the Illini getting to 8-4. However, Witherspoon and Brown aren’t going to be there Monday. Points will be difficult to come by for Illinois as well without Brown leading the ground attack.
Mississippi State will do its bit, but with no run game, the Illini will concentrate on their aerial game and that won’t get this number Over. BET UNDER 46 (-109).
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