The Cleveland Browns 2021 offseason is full of expectations and tough decisions about critical players and their future with the team. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is likely to sign an extension with the Browns, whether it is this offseason or next can potentially affect how much money he gets but that deal is coming either way.
Denzel Ward has expressed interest in staying with Cleveland and the feeling is likely mutual in the Browns front office, despite some predilection towards seeing him play a few more games per season. Wyatt Teller will be a point of contention for many fans but a repeat performance of 2020 at the age of just 26 could make his extension a priority over retaining some of some elder statesmen on the Browns offensive line.
Then there is running back Nick Chubb.
Chubb is special. Incredible burst and uncanny vision make him ideal for the Browns’ run scheme. He is better than that though. The ability to change direction and run through tackles at league-leading rates sets him apart from other backs. There are a good number of smart football people who think he is the best pure runner in the NFL. Consider his work ethic and unique yet incredibly refreshing humble approach to everything and you really could not ask for more.
Things get complicated quickly when breaching the topic of running back extensions in the NFL though. The analytics tell us that it is unsound, and analysts will cringe at the topic, but the reality is those conversations are somewhat specious as thus far NFL teams always end up paying their guy.
When should the deal happen?
According to Spotrac, most of the running back extensions we are looking at for precedent paid the player in between their third and fourth year in the league. However, some of these players were first-round picks, meaning a fifth-year option was available. Still, both the Dallas Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott and the Carolina Panthers’ Christian McCaffrey signed their extensions before their fourth season in the league despite the existence of a fifth-year option.
The Cowboys did exercise Elliott’s fifth-year option worth $9M and paid him a $7.5M signing bonus, and then tacked on his six-year deal after that. So, Elliot is just entering the first year of his extension this season. That is not optimal for a running back deal, although they do have an out after 2022 that would leave them with just $6.7M in dead cap. The Panthers paid McCaffery a signing bonus of $21.5M built into his fifth year into his four-year extension which gave him over $30M guaranteed.
Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook follow this trend, both signing their extensions in the September before their fourth season in the league and the final year on their rookie deal. Elliott, Kamara and Cook all signed their extension in the September before season four in the league. Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones did play out their fourth season before coming to terms with their teams on an extension.
If the Browns know they want to extend Chubb they too could extend him this September. If this were the case, the Browns would likely offer the extension and a nice signing bonus but let Chubb play out his final season on his rookie deal. This is how teams have handled the final year of running back rookie deals to this point and I would be surprised if the Browns tried to restructure the final year of Chubb’s deal into the first of his extension, which has been mentioned as an option. There really is not any precedent for it and the signing bonus serves the purpose of offsetting any request by the player or his agent for immediate compensation.
The Browns can also wait to pay Chubb if they want. One of the criticisms of running back extensions is the inevitable and often rapid decline in performance due to the physical nature of the position.
It can be argued that the Elliot, Kamara and McCaffrey deals are not relevant in today’s running back market. Due to several factors including continued questions about the value of today’s running back and this season’s cap crunch via the pandemic, the market has come down a good deal. Of all the deals examined the most recent and potentially the most relevant are the Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones deals. Both saw their teams wait to pay them until they had played out their contract before extending them.
How much should Nick Chubb get paid?
The total compensation paid out in these extensions is most impacted by the more recent deals and the more comparable players. The Browns could play hardball with Chubb if they wanted to and franchise tag him or even transition tag him for even less money, knowing they would match any offer from another team. However, we saw this play out with the league’s rushing leader in 2020 when the Titans initially franchise-tagged Henry. Eventually he came to an agreement with the Titans on a deal, $50M over four years.
That is not really what needs to be examined though. Henry would have received just $10.3M playing under the franchise tag in 2020, according to Spotrac. This figure has adjusted the market more than anything. If Henry played out two years under the tag with the Titans, he would have made $22.7M. When looking at the guaranteed money in his new deal with the Titans, he is making $25.5M over the first two years of the deal and there is no more guaranteed money afterward. He signed a deal that gave him a year of security and an extra $3M as opposed to playing on the franchise tag. Although, he did not have much of a choice.
Aaron Jones facing the same dilemma this offseason signed on for a similar deal of $48M over four years. However, he is just guaranteed $13M. He can make $10.75M more in roster bonuses but must continue to perform for Green Bay to allow him to lock in that money as guaranteed.
Conclusion: Chubb’s Extension
So, what is the best thing for the Browns and Nick Chubb considering the Browns have considerable leverage at this point? I would follow the model that the Titans showed us: sign Chubb after the season, just to be sure he is still healthy and looking strong. Offer him a fair deal of something like the $50M over four years that Henry received. Give him a nice big signing bonus worth $15M-$17M and guarantee his second year of the deal around $10M.
If his play falls off, the Browns have an out after the 2023 season and if not, he continues to get paid like an elite running back. The Browns remain flexible, as not to end up in a bad deal, and Chubb gets some security and his first big payday.
In looking long and hard at the running back market the Browns can keep the beloved Nick Chubb and do it with minimal risk involved. Pay the man. Just make sure he still looks like the man when you do it.