When the Baltimore Ravens signed running back Mark Ingram in free agency last offseason, they picked up a workhorse capable of leading their rushing attack. That signing proved to be one of the best of the offseason for any team, with Ingram greatly exceeding expectations.
Breaking the 1,000-yard mark on the ground and finding the end zone a total of 15 times with a lowly cap hit of just $3.33 million made Ingram a great bang for the buck. But while some have argued Ingram was a product of Baltimore’s offensive line, a run-first offensive scheme that used quarterback Lamar Jackson as a decoy, the stats tell a more compelling story.
Next Gen Stats created a new advanced statistic through a competition involving over 2,000 data scientists: “expected rushing yards” (ERY). As simple as it sounds, ERY measures the number of yards a ball carrier is “expected to gain on a given carry based on the relative location, speed and direction of blockers and defenders.”
Nick Shook of Around the NFL compiled a list of the running backs with the greatest “rushing yards over expected” (RYOE). Ingram ranked eighth on the list, with an extra 0.51 yards-per-carry over what was expected. Extrapolating that out for the season, Ingram earned an extra 115 rushing yards last season. The Ravens’ offensive line was the best in the league on the ground last season, making Ingram’s RYOE even more impressive.
The Ravens’ offensive line ranked first in the NFL, paving the way for 1,815 ERY. However, Baltimore actually put up 3,296 rushing yards for the season, breaking a 41-year old record for single-season rushing yards in the process. That means the Ravens’ rushers outgained expectations by a whopping 1,481 yards (92.6 yards-per-game / 2.5 yards-per-carry).
Entering the 2020 season, the Ravens are once again expected to be among the best rushing teams in the league, largely thanks to Ingram’s prowess. If he can continue to exceed expectations like he did in 2019, Baltimore will be in great hands once again.
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