Super Bowl LIV is done and over with, marking the official start of the offseason for the NFL. The full draft order has been figured out and every team’s initial needs have been identified. While previous mock drafts have been great exercises in learning the names of prospects, the first post-Super Bowl mock drafts are where things really start getting serious.
In Draft Wire’s first mock draft following Super Bowl LIV, writer Luke Easterling once again handed the Baltimore Ravens a running back in the first round. Easterling though Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor is a good fit for Baltimore’s run-first offense, especially given how the injury to starter Mark Ingram derailed their postseason.
“Mark Ingram’s absence was painfully obvious in Baltimore’s playoff meltdown, and the Ravens would do well to seek a young back who can do all things he brings to the table. Taylor is a complete runner who has the vision, patience, power and explosiveness to be a dangerous weapon in the league’s top rushing attack.”
While I understand Easterling’s reasoning, running backs simply don’t carry the same value they did a decade ago. Over the last 10 NFL drafts, only five have seen multiple running backs drafted in the first round, with two drafts not seeing a single running back taken in the first round. Compare that to 25 consecutive drafts prior to 2010 that saw multiple running backs taken in the first round for a good idea of how teams just don’t value the position like they used to.
In reality, teams can find a starting-quality running back later in the draft, especially if they don’t have a dramatic need for one immediately. The Ravens have perfected that strategy over the last few years. Both Alex Collins and Gus Edwards were brought up from the practice squad in the middle of the season while Ingram was a value free-agent signing last offseason. Even going back to Ray Rice — the last running back Baltimore drafted who started for multiple seasons — they found him in the second round of the 2008 NFL draft.
With much bigger needs at pass rusher, wide receiver, inside linebacker and interior offensive line looming for the Ravens, drafting a running back in the first round would be a tough sell. Even for a team that often drafts the “best player available” regardless of position, there’s little reasoning to believe a first-round running back would even lock up a starting spot by his second season.
Instead, a player like LSU linebacker Patrick Queen, who was taken just two picks later at No. 30, would make far more sense for Baltimore in the 2020 NFL draft.
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