1. Kyler Murray, Cardinals
Murray is the one quarterback in this group where the numbers and film don’t really match up. He did not perform well in most advanced metrics but a poor supporting cast is a big reason why. The Cardinals just didn’t have receivers who could win downfield, forcing Murray to make inch-perfect throws to create big plays.
Murray has the best arm in this class and probably the best of any prospect we’ve seen since Patrick Mahomes in 2017. Thanks to that arm, he finished 8th in on-target throw% on throws more than 20 yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions’ Bryce Rossler. But those downfield throws didn’t always turn into completion, hence Murray’s underwhelming stat line.
Statistically speaking, Murray was much better in the quick game, finishing 11th in success rate and 12th in EPA per attempt on those plays. That’s an encouraging sign considering that those plays make up the bulk of NFL passing attempts.
The Cardinals’ struggles on offense in the red zone are another big reason why Murray’s stats don’t look great. Kliff Kingsbury did not do a good job calling plays in the red zone — way too many goal-line fades — but adding DeAndre Hopkins should help in that regard.
The biggest concern for Murray is his sack rate. I wouldn’t say he’s uncomfortable in the pocket, but he prefers to exit out of the backdoor rather than stepping up in the pocket. That makes things harder on his tackles and leads to some comical sacks.
We can’t leave here without talking about Murray’s contribution in the run game. He was really the only rookie quarterback who was truly a factor in the run game, finishing behind only Lamar Jackson in both designed run attempts and EPA on those plays.
As he gets more comfortable against NFL speed, as Lamar did, he could take a massive leap in Year 2.
Long-term outlook: With a true No. 1 receiver in Hopkins, who will give Arizona an answer for man coverage and in the red zone, the Cardinals offense should take off. As Murray gets used to playing against NFL defenses and his mind catches up with his immense physical ability, the better he’ll get. I would not be surprised if he plays like a top-10 quarterback in 2020. And if the Cardinals win enough games, he could be a sneaky MVP candidate.
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