2. Dwayne Haskins, Redskins
If you were to ask most NFL fans which of the rookie quarterbacks who started multiple games was the shakiest, I’d imagine a large majority would pick Haskins, who didn’t put up the most encouraging stat line. The Ohio State product averaged 6.7 yards per attempt and threw as many interceptions as he did touchdowns.
But the more you watch Haskins’ tape, the more optimistic you’ll be. The first thing that stands out is his arm talent. The dude can sling it. This is an incompletion but I’m in awe how strong this throw is despite Haskins not being able to finish his throwing motion with a defender right in his grill.
That big arm, along with Haskins’ understanding of where to place the ball in spots where only his receiver can catch it, should have led to more production, but he did not get a lot of help from his teammates.
Haskins had the biggest gap between Total Points per attempt — Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary stat that takes EPA and adjusts it based on a player’s individual contribution to a play — and EPA per attempt in the league. He led the rookie class in total points per attempt by a wide margin on clean pocket throws that traveled past the line of scrimmage.
Haskins was consistently forced to throw into tight windows but still avoided turnover-worthy plays at an elite rate, finishing with the fifth-lowest percentage according to PFF despite finishing second in Next Gen Stats’ aggressive throw percentage, which is the rate at which he threw to a receiver with less than a yard of separation. That’s where Haskins’ ball placement really helped.
Haskins’ biggest issue during his rookie campaign was his timing. The 22-year-old finished with the ninth-highest average time to throw, which led to a lot of sacks that could not be blamed on Washington’s offensive line. Haskins’ sack rate (12.7%) was two times higher than Case Keenum’s (5.7%). Holding onto the ball did not work out well for the rookie. His EPA per play dropped to -0.43 and he was consistently late on throws, allowing the defense to close in on the ball.
But I’m optimistic that he’ll figure that out as he gets more experience because in college when he mastered Ohio State’s playbook and there were flashes of him getting through his progressions in a hurry toward the end of the season.
Long-term outlook: Outside of the guy at the top of these rankings, Haskins is the one player who has a legitimate shot at developing into a star quarterback. It’s going to take a lot of work in the areas of concern I’ve covered here, but with that combination of arm strength and football acumen raises his ceiling considerably.
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