4.Drew Lock, Broncos
In early December, after Lock’s record-breaking second start in Houston, I wrote some less-than-complimentary things about the Broncos’ next great hope at quarterback.
After reviewing the final three starts of his rookie season, allow me to walk back some of those things I wrote. Now, my overall take — that Lock is unlikely to ever develop into a consistently above-average starter — still stands, but he did show some improvement in the areas I did not like about his game. The big one was playing in a timely manner. For the first three starts of his career, Lock was consistently late on throws, which is a problem even when you have an arm as strong as he does.
But the more Lock played, the more he improved in that regard. By Week 16, he was getting the ball out before the receiver got out of his break.
And he was making anticipatory throws into tight windows.
That’s the type of progression that Broncos fans were hoping to see. Unfortunately, that improvement did not extend to passing concepts that required more time in the pocket. Lock’s footwork is still quite awkward. When he’s not just catching the ball and throwing it, Lock will just sort of drift in the pocket instead of syncing his drops with the routes his receivers running, which leads to awkwardly timed throws that throw off his accuracy.
Lock’s lack of comfort shows up in the numbers, as well. His performance dropped off considerably when going from quick dropbacks (0-3 steps) to deeper drops (5-7 steps). His EPA went from 19.2 to -2.6. His success rate plummeted from 52.5 to 38.7. And his “on-target” throw percentage dropped from 78.7 to 71.4.
Despite having one of the stronger arms in the league, Lock really struggled when pushing the ball downfield and ball placement was the big reason why. He just doesn’t do a good job of putting the ball out of the defender’s reach and in a spot where only his receiver can get .. especially when throwing downfield.
Lock finished 15th in PFF’s overall accuracy metric, but in its “accuracy+” metric, which tracks perfectly-placed passes, he finished 34th out of 35 quarterbacks. Denver’s coaching staff seemed to understand this and didn’t ask their rookie to make too many demanding throws downfield, which is why Lock finished 29th in big-time throw percentage. That’s not too big of a concern, but this is: Despite that, Lock still managed to throw into coverage A LOT and he finished with a turnover-worthy play percentage that ranked 28th in the league.
Long-term outlook: Lock is undeniably a talented passer. When the picture is clear for him and he can just take the snap and deliver a throw, everything looks like it’s supposed to. It’s when he has to go to Plan B or C within the structure of the offense that things get dicey. In that way, he reminds me of Jimmy Garoppolo … just without a certified offensive genius dialing up plays for him.
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