So here we are: The most intriguing member of the 2019 NFL Draft quarterback class heading into Year Two will be … Jarrett Stidham?
It sure appears as if the New England Patriots are content to hand their post-Tom Brady starter tag to the fourth-round selection out of Auburn. We’ve examined (and discussed at length) what Stidham might look like in that role previously.
But there are five QBs from the 2019 class who played in meaningful NFL games last year, and their film/numbers give us real evidence to go on as we try to predict what they’ll become.
Finding a capable QB in today’s NFL is absolutely essential. That search dictates the life-cycle of a team: Once you think you’ve truly found one, you go for it. But if you’re perpetually searching — looking at you, Broncos — then everything else feels like it’s on hold.
So I ranked last year’s rookies based on a further review of their film, and I discussed my thoughts on each — as well as predicted whether they’d stick — with Chris Korman on the latest edition of our podcast, The Counter. Listen here, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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5. Gardner Minshew, Jaguars
I’m still not sure what to make of Minshew’s rookie season. Using statistical measures, you could make a convincing argument that he was the best first-year passer in the NFL. The film and more advanced metrics tell a different story, however. But not in the ways you’d assume.
For instance, Minshew, who doesn’t own the strongest arm, was one of the better deep-ball passers in the league based on whatever passing metric you prefer. The key to his deep ball prowess is timing. Minshew gets the ball out early so even if he has to put a little more air under the ball, the receiver doesn’t have to wait for it to fall back down to earth.
Air Raid quarterbacks like Minshew are typically more efficient in the quick passing game, but that’s not necessarily the case here. While he was above-average in Pro Football Focus’ accuracy metrics on deep throws, he was well below average everywhere else, finishing 33rd out of 35 quarterbacks in PFF’s overall accuracy metric. Only David Blough finished below Minshew in Next Gen Stats’ Completion Over Expectation (CPOE) stat.
The reason? Minshew missed far too many easy throws. His accuracy was downright erratic at times. He’d even miss easy throws to the flats.
With a weaker arm, Minshew doesn’t have much of a margin for error, so those are throws he just can’t miss if he’s going to be a long-time starter.
While accuracy may be an issue on quicker passes, Minshew is at his best when he gets the ball out of his hands quickly. He’s a sharp dude who can get through his progressions and throw with anticipation.
It’s when he has to hold onto the ball and the pocket starts to close in that Minshew gets out of his depth. He’ll panic and make blind throws into coverage.
According to PFF, Minshew’s turnover-worthy play rate jumps to 5.3% on throws that come after 2.5 seconds and his EPA per play drops to -0.12 on throws to his second or third read.
Long-term outlook: Unless Minshew changes his mentality and embraces his role as a limited quarterback, he’s going to have a hard time avoiding turnovers and ever convincing a coaching staff that he’s a reliable long-term answer at quarterback. He’ll play a long time in this league, but he may have to bounce from team to team — Ryan Fitzpatrick style — in order to do so.