All the talk surrounding the Los Angeles Rams this week has centered around Todd Gurley and his future with the team. ESPN predicted that the Rams will shop Gurley this offseason, in an attempt to free up some cap space and offload his massive contract.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that the Rams will meet with Gurley to discuss how they’ll handle the situation, and “all options are on the table.” That includes keeping the two-time All-Pro, trading him and potentially cutting him – which isn’t a beneficial move because of the $25.65 million dead cap hit the Rams will incur by releasing him.
If the front office is set on parting ways with Gurley, trading him is really the only possible move. It’s easy to say they can just put him on the block and get back a Day 2 pick, but actually pulling that off is much more difficult.
There are hurdles on the path to trading Gurley, beginning with his contract. He has the largest cap hit of any running back in the NFL next season at $17.25 million. At a position that’s been devalued and with the top-paid running backs mostly failing to live up to their contracts, it’s hard to imagine a team trading for his current deal.
Take a look at this list of the 10 highest-paid running backs in the NFL and how they fared in 2019. It’s a cautionary tale for any team considering giving a running back top dollar.
Top 10 RB contracts by $/year:
Zeke – Signed in 2019
Gurley – Trade rumors, injuries
Bell – Coach openly lamenting deal
DJ – Cap casualty coming?
Devonta – I mean
Saquon – Rookie $!
McKinnon – Injured
Fournette – Rookie $!
Lamar Miller – Injured
Duke Johnson – Sheesh, Texans— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) February 6, 2020
Digging into Gurley’s deal further, he has a $7.55 million roster bonus due to him on the third day of the new league year (March 20), which the Rams will be on the hook for if he’s still on the team. Additionally, another $5 million roster bonus in 2021 becomes fully guaranteed on that day, according to Tom Pelissero of NFL Network. That’s part of the remaining $10.5 million in injury guarantees that become fully guaranteed on March 20.
His cap hit in 2021 is more manageable at $13.2 million, but that’s still a hefty price tag for a (to-be) 27-year-old running back with injury concerns. And it’s not like the trading team would be able to get out of his contract without penalty in 2021, either. There’d be an $8.4 million dead cap charge if he’s cut, leaving a savings of just $4.8 million.
The combination of his contract and his injury history don’t necessarily make Gurley untradeable, but finding a partner to take on that deal at this point in his career is the biggest hurdle of all. Finding productive running backs in the middle rounds is very possible and it’s something teams have done a good job of in recent years. The added benefit of drafting a starting running back outside of the first round is how cheap their contracts are.
Nine of the top 10 rushers in the NFL last season were on rookie deals. The only one who wasn’t was Ezekiel Elliott, who finished second. In the top 20, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Aaron Jones, Phillip Lindsay and Saquon Barkley are all also on affordable rookie contracts (with the exception of Barkley’s $7.8M salary).
Why would a team trade for a running back who will be 26 in August and pay him $14.4 million per year after seeing him struggle in 2019 and have his touches limited due to a knee injury? Why wouldn’t that same team just draft a running back with far less wear and tear in the second or third round, pay him about $2 million per year and save the cap space for a more important position?
That’s the issue the Rams will run into when attempting to trade Gurley. The market for running backs has washed up after seeing the deals for Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, Devonta Freeman and Jerick McKinnon all backfire in some way or another.