After beating the Seahawks and Buccaneers in consecutive weeks, the Rams were well-positioned to make a run at the coveted No. 1 seed in the NFC. The top seed has become even more rewarding and important this year, considering it’s the only spot that gets a first-round bye in the playoffs.
Prior to Week 12, the Rams were just one game back of the Saints, who were 8-2 and with Taysom Hill filling in for Drew Brees at quarterback. But exiting the weekend, the Rams’ chances of earning the No. 1 seed have all but evaporated.
They lost to the 49ers and dropped back to 7-4, losing their lead in the NFC West. Meanwhile, the Saints crushed a quarterback-less Broncos team 31-3, improving their record to 9-2. That puts them two games ahead of the Rams for the No. 1 seed.
New Orleans has a favorable upcoming schedule, too, with the only truly tough matchup coming against the Chiefs in Week 15. The Rams, on the other hand, still have to play the Cardinals twice, the Seahawks one more time, as well as the Patriots, who just upset Arizona on Sunday.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Rams have a 4% chance to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC this season, while the Saints have a 47% chance to remain in that spot. Prior to Week 12, the Rams had a 20% chance to take over the No. 1 seed in the conference.
Now, it’s the Packers with the best odds to unseat the Saints at the top, with a 34% chance, followed by the Seahawks at 16%.
In all likelihood, the Rams will be playing on wild-card weekend – assuming they make the playoffs in the first place. They have an 89% chance to reach the postseason, but only a 32% chance to win the division after Sunday’s loss.
If the Seahawks beat the Eagles on Monday night, the Rams’ division-title chances will drop to 26%, but they’ll improve to 43% if Philly pulls off the upset. Every game down the stretch in the NFC West will be a pivotal one, with none of the four teams being easy opponents.