The Tampa Bay Buccaneers don’t need a win in Monday night’s game against the New Orleans Saints. Even with a loss, they’d remain in first place in the NFC South and would very likely be favored to finish the year there.
But they could really use a win after dropping last week’s game to the Cleveland Browns to fall back to under .500.
It was a bad loss that saw the offense regress against a bad defense after seemingly taking strides in the previous weeks.
That’s what makes Monday night’s game so unpredictable. The Bucs are favored by three points, but the Saints typically give Tom Brady and the Tampa offense trouble — including Week 2 when the game was tied 3-3 entering the fourth quarter (Tampa won 20-10).
The best way to beat New Orleans is with a strong run game, which the Bucs absolutely don’t have. Or at least they didn’t until Rachaad White saw an increased workload over the last two weeks.
In that time, White has averaged 4.7 yards per carry on his way to 160 yards in place of the injured Leonard Fournette, who was averaging just 3.4 yards this season.
Tampa has desperately needed to lighten the burden on Brady, who is second in the NFL in pass attempts. And that’s especially the case against the Saints, who rank eighth against the pass but just 22nd against the run. White seems ready to help with that.
Though Fournette seems likely to return Monday after practicing all week, White should remain a part of the offense and give the Bucs another weapon to attack New Orleans. That could help open up the passing game against a secondary that could potentially be getting Marshon Lattimore back from injury. He’s officially listed as questionable to play.
Like Tampa, the Saints aren’t without motivation. Though they occupy last place in the South at 4-8, they can pull within a half game of the Bucs with a win. But their offense has also struggled, averaging less than 13 points in its last four games, including a 13-0 shut out against the Niners last week.
I have less optimism in their ability to turn things around, particularly against a top-five scoring defense like Tampa’s. That’s why I’m rolling with Brady and the Bucs to cover this spread, even if they don’t completely find a groove on offense.
Prince’s Pick: Bucs win 23-13
Anytime TD scorer: Chris Godwin (+700)
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