Big Ten West
Remaining teams in contention: Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue
A four-team race in the Big Ten West is still in play with two weeks to play, but it still looks likely to come down to the Wisconsin Badgers and Iowa Hawkeyes, which many suspected would be the case at the beginning of the season.
Minnesota and Purdue each lost games in Week 11 to make things a bit more difficult in the division, especially for the Gophers with a loss to Iowa and Wisconsin still on deck.
Wisconsin and Iowa are each 5-2 in Big Ten play, but the Badgers have that head-to-head tiebreaker they can rely on at the end of the year if needed. And the way Wisconsin has been playing, it’s possible the Badgers have the inside track for the division crown. The Badgers have a home game against Nebraska in Week 12 and a road game at Minnesota in the final week of the regular season. Iowa’s schedule may be more favorable with a home game against Illinois and a road game at Nebraska after Thanksgiving, although the Illini have spring two top 25 road wins this season against Penn State and Minnesota.
If both Wisconsin and Iowa go 2-0 the next two weeks, the division is Wisconsin’s. But if the Badgers get tripped up in either game and Iowa wins their two games, then the Hawkeyes are heading to the Big Ten championship game.
Purdue has the best remaining schedule in the Big Ten West with two home games against Northwestern and Indiana, with a combined win total of 5-15 and 1-13 in Big Ten play this season. The Boilermakers also have the head-to-head tiebreaker with Iowa. But in order for that to mean anything for the Boilermakers, they need Wisconsin to lose at least once and for Iowa to go down one more time.
The complication for Purdue is they may need Minnesota to beat Wisconsin too, and the Gophers own a head-to-head tiebreaker with Purdue, putting Purdue at a bit of a disadvantage when it comes to the multiple-team tiebreaking procedures in the Big Ten.
Let’s see if we can simplify things without diving too deep in to the complex division tiebreaking scenarios for now.
- Wisconsin wins the Big Ten West with wins against Nebraska and Minnesota
- Iowa wins the Big Ten West with wins against Illinois and Nebraska AND any Wisconsin loss
- Minnesota wins the Big Ten West with wins against Indiana and Wisconsin and any Iowa loss
- Purdue wins the Big Ten West with wins against Northwestern and Indiana AND any Iowa loss AND Wisconsin losses to Nebraska and Minnesota AND a Minnesota loss to Indiana
We could dig a little deeper into the Big Ten division tiebreaking scenarios in the Big Ten West, but we’ll just see what happens in Week 12 before worrying too much about it, because it could clean itself up a little bit next week anyway.
Penn State can lock into fourth place in Big Ten East
It is a far shot from where it looked like this season was projected at the end of September with hopes of playing in at least a New Years Six bowl game looked promising. But Penn State is one win away from locking up fourth place in the Big Ten East Division for the 2021 season.
Yippee.
At 3-4 in Big Ten play with losses to Ohio State and Michigan within the division, Penn State is three back in the loss column of the Buckeyes (four games back), Michigan and Michigan State. Even if Penn State wins its final two games, the Nittany Lions will finish no higher than fourth place in the division for the 2021 season.
Penn State has to win one more game in order to lock in that finishing place in the Big Ten East. The Nittany Lions will host Rutgers this week in the home finale in Beaver Stadium before hitting the road for the final game of the season against Michigan State. Penn State has the potential to play the role of spoiler for the Spartans, as Michigan State will still be playing for at least a spot in a New Years Six bowl game in the final week of the regular season, if not for the Big Ten East Division crown.
Even though Penn State is out of the division hunt, the Big Ten division races will be interesting to watch in the next two weeks.
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