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The Purdue Boilermakers (7-1) and Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1) swing into Big Ten play with a Thursday matchup in State College. The opening tip-off at the Bryce Jordan Center will be at 6:30 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Purdue vs. Penn State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Purdue is No. 7 in the USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll. The Boilermakers are coming off taking the title of the Thursday-Friday Rady Children’s Invitational in San Diego. A final-second Myles Colvin tip-in of a missed Purdue jumper lifted the Boilermakers to an 80-78 triumph over current-No. 20 Ole Miss in the Friday championship game.
Penn State went 1-1 in the Nov. 25-26 Sunshine Slam in Daytona Beach and then returned to Happy Valley for a Sunday game against Buffalo. The Nittany Lions were tabbed as 29-point favorites against the Bulls; they won 87-64.
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Purdue at Penn State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college basketball odds. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Purdue +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Penn State -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Purdue +1.5 (-105) | Penn State -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 149.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Purdue at Penn State picks and predictions
Prediction
Purdue 77, Penn State 75
Moneyline
No interest. PASS.
Against the spread
The last 8 series meetings have seen Purdue go 8-0 straight up and 4-4 ATS. But those were different-level Lions the Boilermakers were facing, and many of those games in recent years had PU tabbed as double-digit favorites.
The records here are identical; the road to get here? Not so much. Purdue and Penn State have played wildly different schedules so far. PU has played just one foe ranked outside the KenPom top 200; PSU has played 5 such games. KenPom tabs the Purdue slate to date 37th in the nation; Penn State’s comes in at No. 339.
Purdue is a slow-tempo team, and its lone loss (76-58 loss Nov. 19) came against a speedy high-quality five in Marquette. But that was an off shooting game for PU, and it came on the heels of a victory and an ATS cover against lightning-fast Alabama (87-78 Nov. 15).
The Nittany Lions are a successful rim-and-3 squad. They typically leverage excellent size in getting a slew of inside looks. Figure that part of PSU’s game at least being deemphasized in this one.
The Boilermakers are the much younger squad here, and they are still putting together rotations and the finer points of half-court play. But PURDUE +1.5 (-105) is the value side of this one.
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Over/Under
The Over did a fly-by in last year’s meeting, a 95-78 Purdue win with the 173 combo eclipsing the lined total of 151. And the Over is 3-1 in 4 series meetings since 2023.
PSU plays fast, but this is a rabbit-turtle clash with Purdue being at the other end of the spectrum. Still, the number here would mark the lowest total in a Lions game since Nov. 4. The point-spiral factors in this one are distance proficiency (both sides are ranked in the top 50 in 3-point percentage) and high frequency of visits to the charity stripe. Purdue has not been anything special on the boards, but its offensive rebounding percentages the last couple games are noteworthy. The Boilermakers are solid in turning second-chance opportunities into buckets.
TAKE THE OVER 149.5 (-110).
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