The Green Bay Packers might have a long checklist of things to get done this offseason, but agreeing to a new contract with Pro Bowl defensive lineman Kenny Clark is at or near the top of the list.
Clark, who is still only 24 years old, has produced three straight productive years (including a Pro Bowl season in 2019) and is about to go into 2020 playing on the final year of his five-year rookie deal, which will pay just under $8 million.
Clark wants to get paid and the Packers want him in Green Bay long-term, so there’s incentive on both sides to get something done this spring or summer.
What will it cost? A lot. Of that, there is no doubt, especially considering the value of contracts signed by some of his peers along the defensive line.
Grady Jarrett’s new deal with the Atlanta Falcons is a logical starting point. They are similar players with similar production in somewhat similar positions.
During his first four seasons, Jarrett produced 14 sacks, 30 tackles for losses and 41 quarterback hits. His approximate value was 22 over 61 games. Clark produced 16.5 sacks, 24 tackles for losses and 26 quarterback hits during his first four seasons, and his approximate value was 30 over 60 games.
Jarrett was given the franchise tag during the 2019 offseason and eventually signed a four-year, $68 million deal, averaging $17 million per year with $42.5 million guaranteed. It made Jarrett the third-highest paid defensive tackle by average value in the NFL.
Clark is under contract in 2020, and the Packers won’t be handcuffed by the franchise tag, so the situations aren’t perfectly symmetrical. But you can bet Clark’s representation will point to Jarrett’s deal while negotiating a new deal with the Packers.
Clark has the statistical ammunition to match or beat Jarrett’s deal. In 2019, Clark produced six sacks and had the second-most pressures by an interior defensive lineman, trailing only Aaron Donald. The fact that he’s 24 and truly entering his physical prime only adds to his potential value. Jarrett, for instance, was almost 26 when he signed his new deal.
Given his age, the Packers may push for a five-year deal, which would keep him under contract through the 2024 season. Clark would be 29, giving him a shot at a third contract before his age-30 season, and the Packers would get him locked up through his best years.
The guess here is that Clark won’t come close to matching Donald’s monster deal with the Los Angeles Rams, but he could easily beat Jarrett, Fletcher Cox, Geno Atkins and Jurrell Casey, currently his four best comps, in average value.
Free agency could change the landscape, especially with Chris Jones and Arik Armstead heading for unrestricted free agency. It makes sense for Clark to wait, see how the market reacts and adjust the negotiation accordingly. Still, Jones and Armstead aren’t perfect player comps for Clark, so their new deals shouldn’t change the outlook too much.
Clark may have to sacrifice some total value to get a deal done now, with one year left on his deal, but he should still clear $17 million annually. The guaranteed money is tricky, but the Packers like using the signing bonus to help spread out cap hits and avoid guaranteeing base salaries. Most of the top defensive lineman contracts are guaranteed at 60 percent or more of the total value but the Packers rarely go that high. Selectively placed roster bonuses add functional guarantees early in the deal and functional team options later.
Projection: Five years, $87.5 million, $40 million guaranteed, $25 million signing bonus