The Indianapolis Colts brought in veteran quarterback Philip Rivers on a one-year deal in free agency hoping he can be a spark for the offense after a dismal year of passing in 2019.
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Though Rivers himself is coming off of a down year, he projects well in the Colts offense. His connection with head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni bode well for a seamless transition while the offensive line and plethora of weapons should help him plenty.
Rivers should provide the Colts with a boost in the passing game even if there is a higher risk of turnover rate from 2019.
It’s early in the offseason and things could change but based on historical data, the situation he’s walking into and what he brings to the offense, here’s my early projection for Rivers’ season in 2020:
| Attempts | Completions | Comp. % | Passing Yards | TDs | INTs | YPA | TD% | INT% |
| 560 | 382 | 68.2% | 4,278 | 27 | 15 | 7.64 | 4.8% | 2.7% |
Rivers likely won’t see the same passing volume he saw during his time with the Chargers. The Colts are still going to throw the ball plenty, and they should be expected to do so more than they did in 2019 (513 attempts). But they are still a team that wants to run the ball.
With Andrew Luck under center in 2018, the Colts had a 62:38 ratio favoring the pass in neutral game scripts. With Jacoby Brissett under center in 2019, that flipped completely on its head as they had a 54:46 ratio in neutral game scripts, per Sharp Football.
Historical data shows that teams in the 9–10 win range have a pass-to-run ratio of roughly 55:45. The Colts are projected by most to be in that range of wins for 2020. So while the ratio will be the same as when Brissett was under center, I’m projecting the Colts to be much more efficient with their passing volume.
Rivers is stepping into a position that should be beneficial in terms of his numbers. He has a stout offensive line to work behind, a borderline elite run game and plenty of weapons to target in the passing game.
He just now needs to prove he isn’t losing any arm strength and that he can cut down on the turnover-worthy throws from 2019.
Those factors along with his fit in Reich’s offense and the historical trends he has shown in recent seasons has his projection looking like an upgrade for the Colts at the quarterback position in 2020.
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