Despite leading the backfield fo the last two seasons, running back Marlon Mack will be fighting for snaps in a duo with rookie Jonathan Taylor, who was drafted in the second round in April.
[lawrence-related id=45268]
Mack, who saw a career-high in carries (247), rushing yards (1,091) and snaps (47%) in 2019, will now see much of his past workload go to the rookie in Taylor. The two are expected to share the work on early downs while Nyheim Hines remains the unit’s pass-catcher.
Projecting the Colts offense is incredibly difficult because there are a lot of mouths to feed. But here are my early projections for Mack as he enters a contract year.
| Attempts | Yards | TDs | YPC | Targets | Rec. | Rec. Yds | Rec. TDs |
| 174 | 783 | 6 | 4.5 | 11 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
How the Colts will split up the backfield remains to be seen. My current projections have Taylor and Mack splitting the early-down work and the rush shares at 41% and 38%, respectively. The difference is a mere 13 carries—though it’s my belief that Taylor will take over somewhat during the second half.
Attempts: As stated above, Mack is projected right now to get 38% of the team’s rushing attempts. That’s way down from the 58% and 61% marks over the last two seasons. But Taylor is here now, and Mack will have to give up a lot of work. The part that makes this difficult is the narrative that perhaps the Colts use as much of Mack as they can seeing as he’s a free agent after the season. Maybe they preserve Taylor a bit early on and use Mack on the physically demanding carries? Who knows, but right now I have it more of an even split.
Touchdowns: It will be interesting to see how the Colts use the backfield at the goal line. Taylor has the build to handle consistent work there, but Mack has been efficient when working near the goal line. He also has breakaway speed so there is always the chance for a long touchdown or two.
Targets: This is where Mack’s game takes the biggest hit even though he was never a part of the passing game anyway. His upside is very limited now that Taylor is there and Hines will be working as the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield. Mack has seen only 43 targets over the last two seasons so he shouldn’t be expected to be a factor in the passing game.
Conclusion
Mack’s upside is limited in 2019, which is kind of sad because he was such a reliable option during the last two seasons. He’s not likely to see any passing work and the fact that he’s sharing the early downs with Taylor means he won’t have a major impact in fantasy football. Maybe he sees a lot of the goal line work in what could be his final season with the Colts, but right now it isn’t looking like Mack will be a major fantasy asset.
Point Projections
PPR: 128.1
Half-PPR: 124.1
Non-PPR: 120.1
[lawrence-related id=45296,45271]