Detroit Lions general manager Bob Quinn typically targets training camp as a prime time of the year to hand out contract extensions to key players within the organization. Players who are in the final year of their deals and possess longterm upside will often get contract extension offers with the hope of locking them up for the next four or five seasons.
Of the 50 available Lions in contract years, only a handful will be considered for extension and wide receiver Kenny Golladay should top the list. But what might that extension look like?
Let’s take a look at where Golladay is in his development, his upside, and what comparable players at his position are making in order to project what his extension could be.
Development
The Lions selected Golladay with pick 96 overall in the 2017 draft and was slowly worked into the wide receiver rotation as a rookie. By his sophomore season, he earned a starting role and was developing at a rapid enough pace that the Lions felt comfortable trading away Golden Tate and giving Golladay a larger amount of responsibility. He thrived, finishing the season with over 1,000 yards receiving.
In year three, Golladay established himself as the Lions’ number one receiver, once again topped 1,000 yards receiving, led the NFL in touchdown receptions with 11, received his first Pro Bowl nomination, and earned a contract boost due to the league’s performance escalator clause — increasing this year’s contract from $929,706 to $2.3 million.
“Over the last two seasons,” Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar pointed out, “Golladay has more receiving yards (2,253) than Amari Cooper, Stephon Diggs, Jarvis Landry, and Odell Beckham Jr. Golladay’s 16 receiving touchdowns over the last two seasons tie him with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Antonio Brown, and Eric Ebron for third-best in the NFL. And he ranks eighth in that time in yards per target (9.59) among receivers with at least 100 catches.”
Upside
Heading into the 2020 season, Golladay is on a plethora of watchlists, including landing just outside the Top-10 of wide receivers to watch based on an ESPN poll of NFL executives, coaches, scouts, and players.
Golladay has gotten better each of his three years in the NFL and most anticipate he has yet to reach his ceiling. With a healthy Matthew Stafford — remember, he achieved last year’s success with Jeff Driskel and David Blough throwing him the ball for half the season — putting up top-5 receiving numbers in future seasons is within reach.
Most projected receiving yards
1. Michael Thomas – 1,525
2. Julio Jones – 1,457
3. Kenny Golladay – 1,405
4. Chris Godwin – 1,331 pic.twitter.com/NtFKuXkBhN— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) May 27, 2020
Comparable players and their contracts
As Farrar pointed out above, statistically Golladay is in the ballpark with Amari Cooper, Stephon Diggs, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Cooper Kupp.
When examining where Golladay’s next contract should land, the conversation should begin with these players. Cooper landed a new contract this season that averages $20 million, Beckham averages $18 million, Evans $16.5 million, Landry $15.1 million, with Diggs’ $14.4 million likely being the floor. Godwin and Kupp, like Golladay, are in the final years of their rookie contracts and are also candidates for extensions.
With contracts constantly on the rise, it can be a challenging task to project player’s value. Cooper’s latest market setting wide receiver deal may have established a baseline for a Golladay deal, but it’s also just as likely the Cowboys overpaid.
Spotrac.com — a salary cap focused website — uses Calculated Market Share to project player’s potential new contracts based on comparable players and used their formula to project new deals for Golladay, Godwin, and Kupp. Here are the results:
So why does Golladay’s projection average over $2 million more per year? It comes down his perceived upside and to the types of players Spotrac believes are comparable to Golladay. Per Spotrac, Godwin and Kupp compare to players like Diggs, Landry, Adam Thielen, and Brandon Cooks. While Golladay is compared to Cooper, Thomas, and Beckham Jr.
You can bet the conversations between the Lions and Golladay’s agent are using similar strategies of comparison. While the Lions will be pushing for deals closer to the Godwin/Kupp range, Golladay’s agent is surely following Spotrac’s lead and comparing him to the top receivers in the game.
Projection
If the Lions let Golladay get to the 2021 free agency period his price tag will skyrocket. Even though the NFL is set to take a loss of profits in 2020, the Lions are in a good situation to withstand a potential future drop in salary cap space and should use this opportunity to get ahead of the game and lock up one of their young superstars.
As much as Golladay would benefit from landing Spotrac’s projected $18.9 million per year, I have a hard time believing the Lions would go beyond next year’s anticipated franchise tag, which would be somewhere in the range of $18 million — this year’s number was $17.865 million but should see a slight increase after Cooper’s deal and the salary cap is expected to stay the same in 2021.
A four year, $72 million deal, averaging $18 million a year, would put Golladay on par with Beckham Jr. and Tyreek Hill, tied for the fifth-highest receiver contracts in the NFL, while also matching the contract average the Lions gave Trey Flowers in 2019.
Is Golladay worth that high of salary? I don’t think it’s far off.
The next tier under Beckham Jr./Hill’s $18 million is Evans at $16.5 million, with Cooks, Thielen, and DeAndre Hopkins all averaging $16.2 million. Factoring in contract inflation and now we’re in the $17 million range.
At the end of the day, that’s where I see this contract landing. Averaging somewhere between $17 and $18 million per season, and structured as a 4-year contract totaling between $68 and $72 million, with $36-40 million guaranteed.