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So, the New Orleans Saints might have missed their window of opportunity to re-sign Alvin Kamara on the most team-friendly deal possible. The Carolina Panthers scuttled that chance with a four-year, $64 million contract extension for Christian McCaffrey, heralding a new wave of running back contracts around the NFL — maybe.
McCaffrey’s new average salary of $16 million just beats the high-water mark established by Ezekiel Elliott, who the Dallas Cowboys inked to an unprecedented six-year, $90 million extension just before the 2019 season. But Elliott’s new deal didn’t exactly precipitate a rush of big-money contracts for running backs all over the league, either. Teams still tend to undervalue the position.
There’s no questioning his importance to the team; Kamara is effectively the Saints’ number-one running back and its number-two wide receiver, having touched the ball nearly as often in 2019 alone (252 times, with 171 carries and 81 catches) as $100 million wide receiver Michael Thomas has done in his last two record-setting seasons combined (275 times, between a league-leading 125 receptions in 2018, 149 in 2019, and a single rushing attempt).
But Kamara’s workload diminishes quickly when compared to what McCaffrey, Elliott, and other big-name runners around the league have handled. McCaffrey saw a career-high 287 carries last season, plus 142 targets (catching 116 of them). Elliott has logged 300-plus rushing attempts in three of his first four seasons. Derrick Henry is the next in line to reset the market, though he’s playing on a $10.278 million franchise tag in 2020. Kamara is much more of a part-time player than those two.
Still, a rising tide raises all ships. Even if teams are slow to sign running backs to huge deals, they have done it. A lengthy holdout resulted in Le’Veon Bell’s $13.125 million per-year contract with the New York Jets. While he was traded to the Houston Texans after injuries limited his availability, David Johnson is going to earn $13 million in 2020.
If Melvin Gordon is willing to play for $8 million on a prove-it deal with the Denver Broncos (and if Kenyan Drake is worth slightly more than that on a transition tag), then Kamara’s asking-price has to start out at least a stone’s throw from that range.
The difficulty in guessing a ceiling comes from the Saints’ track record of low-balling pass-catchers. Thomas is the first skills-position talent the team has signed to a contract valued near the top of the market since Jimmy Graham, who was almost immediately traded away to get out of it. So Kamara’s upper limit of expectations should not be anywhere near the $16 million figure McCaffrey commands. Even the $13 million Bell and Johnson earned might be pushing it.
While Kamara will beat Austin Ekeler’s contract with the Los Angeles Chargers by a mile, it’s worth remembering its structure. Ekeler has climbed the Chargers depth chart to become their go-to passing down back, which is a great role to play in a passing-down league. His $24.5 million contract averages out to just $6.125 million over four years, a salary far beneath Kamara’s expectations. While their receiving stats are similar (Ekeler caught 92 of 108 targets last year, gaining 993 yards through the air), Kamara’s larger body of work and frequent trips to the Pro Bowl will build his case.
So here’s our suggestion, averaging the salaries of Elliott, Bell, and Johnson (on the upper end of the scale) against Gordon (on the lower side), using Ekeler’s guarantees as a loose guide.
A sensible deal for Kamara (from the Saints’ perspective) could look like a three-year, $37 million contract with $22.57 million in guarantees. That would pay out an average salary of $12.3 million per year (raising his 2020 pay from where it stands now, at just over $2 million) and guarantee the first two years of the contract. We’ll just assume that Saints salary cap guru Khai Hartley includes some automatically-voided years at the end of it to help with the accounting, his signature move. If Kamara can remain healthy and productive, he would be set up to test free agency in 2023 before his 28th birthday, still in his prime and able to cash in after new broadcasting contracts have raised the NFL salary cap.
If nothing else, making that sort of offer now would give the Saints an idea of Kamara’s headspace. If he dismisses it out of hand, expecting closer to what McCaffrey and Elliott are earning, they’ll know that he won’t fit their budget and can add “running back” to their list of roster needs before this year’s draft. But if Kamara mulls it over and is willing to talk shop, there’s a chance the Saints could reach a compromise that makes both parties happy — much like they did last season in new deals with Thomas, Wil Lutz, and Cameron Jordan.
That said: there’s risk in signing Kamara to a short-term deal rather than a long-running contract. It takes away the Saints’ ability to backload future years, making it more difficult to maneuver around the salary cap in the short-term. And that could be the difference between retaining someone like Ramczyk or Lattimore (whose fifth-year options keep them around through 2021).
But at the same time, making a long-term commitment to a player with an injury history at a position that sees such high rates of attrition doesn’t make a ton of sense. And that brings us back full-circle, asking the original question of just how highly running backs should be valued in today’s NFL.
It’s a tough situation to navigate. Based off their recent moves, we could see some movement between the Saints and Kamara in the weeks ahead. The longer the Saints wait, the higher the market value will rise as players like Henry and Drake sign their own contract extensions. If they wait too long, they might get priced out.
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