Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery should be an RB1 in fantasy football. He should be one of the most productive backs in the league, considering he’s the only act in Chicago’s backfield.
Instead, he’s a fringe play across all fantasy leagues, and according to Pro Football Focus, he’s a player to avoid in daily fantasy this week.
David Montgomery needs to be started across all traditional formats due to his sure workload, but in DFS he is a big fade for me. The matchup is too tough against the New Orleans Saints, who have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the RB position.
In tough RB matchups, we can lean on pass-game usage to salvage running back fantasy value, but the Saints have faced the seventh-fewest targets and allowed the sixth-lowest yards per target (5.3) to running backs this season.
Montgomery is having something of a mirror-image season to what he had as a rookie. He has the exact same yards-per-carry average — 3.7 — and is on pace for 806 rushing yards, down from his 2019 total of 889. Keep in mind he had 242 carries last year; he’s on pace for just 219 this season.
Montgomery’s touchdown pace is down from last year too when he finished the season with seven total scores. He has just two through seven games in 2020.
Montgomery has been victimized a bit by negative game script to start the year, and if the Bears can avoid falling behind like they did in three of their first four wins, his carry totals should go up. There’s literally no one else to give the ball to, at least, not until Lamar Miller proves he’s healthy enough to make a viable contribution.
With more early-game carries, his late-game production should improve.
But the folks at PFF are right. It’s time for Montgomery to ride the bench until he proves he’s capable of being trusted as a productive fantasy option. This isn’t the week to roll the dice on him.