Pre-free agency mock draft: QB carousel sends the first round into a tizzy

With NFL free agency just around the corner, and the scouting combine in the rear-view, how might the first round of the draft be affected?

If you want to know how the NFL really feels about the 2022 quarterback draft class, you only need to look at the deals that were made during and after the scouting combine. Aaron Rodgers re-upped with the Green Bay Packers. The Broncos traded two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and three players to the Seahawks for Russell Wilson. And the Washington Commanders, for whatever reason, traded for Carson Wentz and agreed to eat a lot of Wentz’s remaining salary — which has proven to be a massive overpay when aligned with Wentz’s performance.

There’s also the Deshaun Watson situation, which is its own unique bag of badgers.

Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral, and Sam Howell. Those are the five main players at the quarterback position in this year’s draft class, trying to state their respective cases as future franchise field-tilters.

Based on everything to date, results have been mixed. The word on this quarterback class has been out for a while — you may strike gold with one of these players in the right system, and you’re just as likely to get fooled by traits over performance — or, need over reality.

As a result, this draft could just as easily be like the 2013 draft, in which 11 quarterbacks were selected, but only one — Florida State’s EJ Manuel — was taken in the first round, and either Geno Smith or Mike Glennon proved to be the best of the group. Just because quarterbacks are overstuffed from a value perspective doesn’t mean that all of these guys in 2022 are automatic first-rounders. Some years just don’t give up the best players at the game’s most important position.

This particular mock, coming as it does a few days before the 2022 league year begins and free-agency frenzy gets underway, is affected by that process, and those particular needs. There are just three quarterbacks in this first-round projection, and all I can say at this point is: Don’t be completely surprised if this is how it shakes out.